Will very large baby bonuses work?

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one bit:

South Korea, which has the world’s lowest total fertility rate — just above 0.7, far below the replacement level of 2.1 — is pondering a radical solution: baby bonuses of 100 million won each, or about $70,000. For perspective, that is about twice South Korea’s annual per-capita income. At current birth rates, the plan would cost more than $16 billion a year; if it is successful, it will cost even more.

And this:

In principle at least, these kinds of policies are self-financing. Most babies born today or over the next few years will grow up to be taxpayers. In the long run, the birth subsidies in net terms need not cost anything at all. If, for instance, you pay two years’ average income to a family to have another child, you might plausibly expect to later receive about 45 years of tax receipts.

But will such policies actually result in population growth? After all, the government may end up making a lot of payments to families which would have had children anyway. Imagine that, after putting the policy into practice, only one-tenth of the kids born were induced by the subsidy. In that case, in expected-value terms, the two years’ investment of per-capita income yields only one-tenth of the calculation presented above — that is, 4.5 years of additional tax receipts. Given that those receipts are discounted for a rather distant future, and perhaps constitute only about a third of income, in fiscal terms this is not a profitable deal.

You still might think it is worth spending money to increase the number of Korean babies. After all, people in prosperous countries are on average happy, and that is worthwhile in itself, quite aside from their contribution to the public till. Still, if addressing public budget imbalances is one of the motivations for this policy, it could make fiscal problems worse.

Worth a ponder…

The post Will very large baby bonuses work? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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Rocket Report: Starship stacked; Georgia shuts the door on Spaceport Camden

On Wednesday, SpaceX fully stacked the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage for the mega-rocket's next test flight from South Texas.

Enlarge / On Wednesday, SpaceX fully stacked the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage for the mega-rocket's next test flight from South Texas. (credit: SpaceX)

Welcome to Edition 6.44 of the Rocket Report! Kathy Lueders, general manager of SpaceX's Starbase launch facility, says the company expects to receive an FAA launch license for the next Starship test flight shortly after Memorial Day. It looks like this rocket could fly in late May or early June, about two-and-a-half months after the previous Starship test flight. This is an improvement over the previous intervals of seven months and four months between Starship flights.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Blue Origin launch on tap this weekend. Blue Origin plans to launch its first human spaceflight mission in nearly two years on Sunday. This flight will launch six passengers on a flight to suborbital space more than 60 miles (100 km) over West Texas. Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos's space company, has not flown people to space since a New Shepard rocket failure on an uncrewed research flight in September 2022. The company successfully launched New Shepard on another uncrewed suborbital mission in December.

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Friday Squid Blogging: Emotional Support Squid

When asked what makes this an “emotional support squid” and not just another stuffed animal, its creator says:

They’re emotional support squid because they’re large, and cuddly, but also cheerfully bright and derpy. They make great neck pillows (and you can fidget with the arms and tentacles) for travelling, and, on a more personal note, when my mum was sick in the hospital I gave her one and she said it brought her “great comfort” to have her squid tucked up beside her and not be a nuisance while she was sleeping.

As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.

Read my blog posting guidelines here.

FBI Seizes BreachForums Website

The FBI has seized the BreachForums website, used by ransomware criminals to leak stolen corporate data.

If law enforcement has gained access to the hacking forum’s backend data, as they claim, they would have email addresses, IP addresses, and private messages that could expose members and be used in law enforcement investigations.

[…]

The FBI is requesting victims and individuals contact them with information about the hacking forum and its members to aid in their investigation.

The seizure messages include ways to contact the FBI about the seizure, including an email, a Telegram account, a TOX account, and a dedicated page hosted on the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3).

“The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is investigating the criminal hacking forums known as BreachForums and Raidforums,” reads a dedicated subdomain on the FBI’s IC3 portal.

“From June 2023 until May 2024, BreachForums (hosted at breachforums.st/.cx/.is/.vc and run by ShinyHunters) was operating as a clear-net marketplace for cybercriminals to buy, sell, and trade contraband, including stolen access devices, means of identification, hacking tools, breached databases, and other illegal services.”

“Previously, a separate version of BreachForums (hosted at breached.vc/.to/.co and run by pompompurin) operated a similar hacking forum from March 2022 until March 2023. Raidforums (hosted at raidforums.com and run by Omnipotent) was the predecessor hacking forum to both version of BreachForums and ran from early 2015 until February 2022.”

Aurora Banks Peninsula

This This


Aurora Georgia

A familiar sight from Georgia, USA, the A familiar sight from Georgia, USA, the


When you’re driving in Google Maps you’re re-enacting an ancient space combat sim

This week I’m midway through my now-annual lecture series on folktales from the history of computing at AHO (the Oslo School of Architecture and Design).

The idea is that I trace an admittedly idiosyncratic path through the history of the personal computer by focusing on certain stories that were, once upon a time, handed down to me as being pivotal. (Though I try to be rigorous when it comes to the lineage: I love evidence for the interconnections.)

Then I unpack the tales to look at the world they were in, roads not taken, voices not heard, and I share a view on where I stand with respect to what we should take from it all.

With a dash of speculative design and storytelling.

Look, it’s this blog in lecture form, that’s all you need to know.

I’m pretty well grooved in now. This is my fourth time giving the talks with AHO, and I had a ton of fun doing the whole series on three successive nights for a tech conference back in 2021.

But: each year I keep notes of where I feel I hit speed bumps to fix for the next time. And the opening of the first talk has never felt satisfying to me. Too much exposition, not enough feel.

Anyway! I fixed that this year! I have a new story to open.


It’s about the little dart-shaped arrow that appears at the top of your iPhone when an app is using your location. You know the arrow I mean. The students all recognise it too.

The heart of this story is from research and a long read by Benj Edwards, tech historian and journalist.

Back in 2015, Edwards published this amazing history of the first ever in-car computerised navigation system:

Thirty years ago, a company called Etak released the first commercially available computerized navigation system for automobiles. Spearheaded by an engineer named Stan Honey and bankrolled by Nolan Bushnell, the cofounder of Atari, the company’s Navigator was so far ahead of its time that the phrase “ahead of its time” seems like an understatement.

So, that dart-shaped arrow…

…is also the arrow used in Google Maps turn-by-turn navigation to show your current location. You can see it if you use directions in the app today. You can see it in the Google Maps Navigation launch blog post from 2009.

And what Edwards spotted is that the same Google Maps arrow was used by Etak to show the current location of your car, way back then.

To give you an idea of how much 1985 was a different era: there were no GPS satellites. So you had to put magnetic sensors in your wheels to count rotations.

Map data was stored on audio cassette tapes in the back of the car!

The screen didn’t have pixels! It was a vector screen, with electron beams painting lines on directly on the phosphors, like an oscilloscope.

So check out his article, because there’s a photo of the Etak Navigator, and you can see the dart-arrow, right there in the mirror. So is that the origin?

Edwards goes further. In a follow-up article, he figured out the connection:

To Etak’s benefit, Catalyst’s shared office building encouraged the cross-pollination of ideas between companies. Alcorn, while working at Cumma, recalls being fascinated by the activities at Etak. During development, he snuck into nearby Atari’s coin-op division building with Etak engineers to show them the hit 1979 arcade title Asteroids. The game used a vector display that produced fluid animations with low-cost hardware. It’s little surprise, then, that Etak’s final on-screen representation of the car in its shipping product was a vector triangle nearly identical to the ship from Asteroids.

Asteroids? Asteroids (Wikipedia). The break-out coin-op arcade game. The dart-arrow is the spaceship, it’s right there!

Thank you Benj, amazing research!

btw: Benj has a new book out, a history of Nintendo’s OG virtual reality gaming device, Virtual Boy from 1995: Seeing Red (Amazon).


I think we can take another step back…

Before Asteroids there was Spacewar! (Wikipedia).

Spacewar was developed in 1962 for the PDP-1 – cost: $120k then, $1.2m in today’s money, only 55 ever made.

Spacewar was the first popular video game. (That is, it may not have been the first graphical video game, but it was the first one popular enough to be copied to other locations). It was played mainly illicitly… the PDP-1 was a research computer, and the game was played after hours.

It’s a simulation of space combat between two ships: the needle and the wedge.

But it pointed at a new application of real-time computers. Brenda Laurel (in Computers as Theatre) observes that Spacewar showed that

[the computer’s] interesting potential lay not in its ability to perform calculations but in its capacity to represent action in which humans could participate.

Its popularity broke through: Stewart Brand wrote about Spacewar in Rolling Stone magazine in 1972 (pdf).

Ready or not, computers are coming to the people. That’s good news, maybe the best since psychedelics.

Brand used Spacewar as a subcultural phenomenon to introduce what was going on in those days with computing, and in particular at Xerox PARC. He got some good quotes. Here’s one:

Alan Kay: “The game of Spacewar blossoms spontaneously wherever there is a graphics display connected to a computer.”

And of course Stewart Brand, having been present at the birth of personal computing in 1968, went on to be the first person to use "personal computer" in print (to mean the thing we mean today) in 1974. Here’s the Twitter thread where I asked him.

ANYWAY.

Spacewar inspired Asteroids.

So. While “the wedge” spaceship in Spacewar isn’t visually identical to the ship in Asteroids, and therefore to Etak, and Google Maps, and the dart-arrow that appears in the iPhone, there’s the ancestry.


When you’re driving around in Google Maps, you’re piloting a spaceship in an ancient simulation of space warfare.

That’s what I’m saying. And, like, does it matter? Does the connection mean anything?

I tend to believe that it does matter, yes, that vibe transmits somehow. A chair made by a carpenter who sits badly will impart their twisted stance on anyone who sits in it.

I can’t tell you exactly why I think it’s worth looking at, or what would have been different had the original game been a digital Ouija Board or a virtual loom or proto-Farmville.

And if we disagree on whether it matters then that’s worth talking about too!

Speculating on the counterfactuals, opening up whether it even matters, and finding joy in the interconnectedness of all things – that’s what the talk series is all about.


“Now” is never just a moment. The Long Now is the recognition that the precise moment you’re in grows out of the past and is a seed for the future.

The lectures wind up in a meditation on the braided tendencies in computing of collaboration and control. These idealistic moments - effective and wrong-headed, we get both - in a technology that finds its evolution in ugly periods and repeatedly tends towards population control… can we take lessons from that, too?

Well. A story for another day.


More posts tagged: computing-history (8).

Friday 17 May 1661

All the morning at home. At noon Lieutenant Lambert came to me, and he and I to the Exchange, and thence to an ordinary over against it, where to our dinner we had a fellow play well upon the bagpipes and whistle like a bird exceeding well, and I had a fancy to learn to whistle as he do, and did promise to come some other day and give him an angell to teach me. To the office, and sat there all the afternoon till 9 at night. So home to my musique, and my wife and I sat singing in my chamber a good while together, and then to bed.

Read the annotations

May 17th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths at New Pandemic Low!

Mortgage RatesNote: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations, however hospitalizations were at a pandemic low two weeks ago.

COVID Metrics
 NowWeek
Ago
Goal
Deaths per Week443532≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts,
🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Deaths per WeekClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths have declined sharply from the recent peak of 2,561 and are now below the previous pandemic low of 491 last July.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 11th:

COVID-19 WastewaterThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

Nationally, COVID in wastewater is now off more than 90% from the holiday peak at the end of December - and also near the lows of last year - and that suggests weekly deaths will continue to decline.   However, there was a slight uptick over the last week.

Helium leak further delays Starliner crewed test flight

Starliner on pad
Starliner on pad

NASA and Boeing have once again delayed first crewed flight of the company’s CST-100 Starliner as they work to resolve a helium leak in the spacecraft’s propulsion system.

The post Helium leak further delays Starliner crewed test flight appeared first on SpaceNews.

India enters troubled space insurance market

Indian insurance specialist Tata AIG is expanding into space as the global market reels from a string of heavy losses.

The post India enters troubled space insurance market appeared first on SpaceNews.

Startup’s chip design aims to boost satellite computing power

A Carnegie Mellon University spinoff, Efficient Computer, developed a chip architecture that promises reduced energy consumption

The post Startup’s chip design aims to boost satellite computing power appeared first on SpaceNews.

It’s time to figure out global space traffic management

AI-generated image showing a huge swarm of satellites orbiting Earth.
AI-generated image showing a huge swarm of satellites orbiting Earth.

Could commercial imperatives lay the groundwork for well-defined, coherent space traffic management norms and erect space sustainability guardrails?

The post It’s time to figure out global space traffic management appeared first on SpaceNews.

Omnispace reports interference from Starlink direct-to-device payloads

Starlink launch May 14 2024
Starlink launch May 14 2024

Omnispace says it is seeing interference from direct-to-device payloads on recently launched SpaceX Starlink satellites, offering an early test of new Federal Communications Commission regulations about such services.

The post Omnispace reports interference from Starlink direct-to-device payloads appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA and ESA complete agreement for cooperation on Mars rover mission

The ExoMars Rosalind Franklin rover.
The ExoMars Rosalind Franklin rover.

NASA and the European Space Agency have completed an agreement under which NASA will provide hundreds of millions of dollars of support for a European Mars rover mission.

The post NASA and ESA complete agreement for cooperation on Mars rover mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA, Boeing further delay Starliner Crew Flight Test launch amid ongoing helium leak review

A United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas 5 N22 rocket with Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft on top as seen the day before its planned May 6 launch. A problematic valve caused the mission to scrub two hours before liftoff. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Ongoing analysis of a helium leak on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft forced NASA and Boeing to delay the Crew Flight Test mission further.

A blog post, issued late on Friday afternoon, announced a new target launch date for Starliner CFT with NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams of no earlier than Saturday, May 25, at 3:09 p.m. EDT (1909 UTC).

The spacecraft will launch atop an Atlas 5 rocket from United Launch Alliance to dock with the International Space Station for a roughly eight-day stay before returning to Earth.

Heading into a May 6 launch attempt, a leak was detected in the pressurization system that allows the fuel and oxidizer on the Starliner’s Service Module (SM) to flow correctly to their designated thrusters when called upon. The SM features 28 reaction control system (RCS) thrusters and 20 orbital maneuvering and attitude control (OMAC) thrusters.

The helium leak was connected to a single RCS thruster and was determined to be within flight limits on May 6.

However, during the countdown, a pressure relief valve on the Atlas 5 rocket’s Centaur upper stage was acting up and the mission was scrubbed about two hours before liftoff. The rocket was rolled back into ULA’s Vertical Integration Facility (VIF) where the valve was replaced, tested and cleared for flight.

While inside the VIF, Boeing decided to further study and test the helium leak to provide greater assurance that it wouldn’t impact the mission.

Teams brought the spacecraft up to flight pressure on May 15 and determined that “the [helium] leak in the flange is stable and would not pose a risk at that level during flight,” NASA and Boeing said in a joint blog post.

The update also noted that “testing also indicated the rest of the thruster system is sealed effectively across the entire service module.”

Helium is pressurized to a certain level during the run-up to launch as well as during the rocket’s ascent in the event that the thrusters and the launch abort engines would be needed for an abort and a quick escape for the astronauts.

Once the spacecraft reaches orbit, it would vent off some of the helium intentionally.

While the testing this week had some positive indications, Boeing and NASA decided to take more time for Boeing “to develop operational procedures to ensure the system retains sufficient performance capability and appropriate redundancy during the flight.”

“As that work proceeds, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program and the International Space Station Program will take the next few days to review the data and procedures to make a final determination before proceeding to flight countdown,” the blog stated.

Spaceflight Now reached out to NASA and Boeing for an interview regarding the update. A NASA spokesperson said there was no briefing planned until the standard pre-launch briefing late next week. Meanwhile, a Boeing spokesperson declined an interview, though presumably, will have a representative participate in the forthcoming briefing. NASA did not respond to requests for interviews.

Following the May 6 launch scrub, and while this work has been ongoing, Wilmore and Williams flew back to Houston, Texas, to be with their families and continue training for the mission. They are due to return to Florida “closer to the new launch date.”

The Starliner spacecraft was selected alongside SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule to become the two vehicles NASA would use to transport its astronauts to and from the ISS. Boeing and SpaceX received $4.2 billion and $2.6 billion respectively for the development work and the first six operation missions.

SpaceX launched its uncrewed demonstration mission in 2019 and the two-member crewed Demo-2 flight in May 2020. To date, Dragon has flown 53 people across 13 mission, four of which were non-governmental private flights.

Boeing’s Orbital Flight Test in 2019 ran into multiple issues, including a software problem that prevented it from being able to safely dock to the ISS. The second Orbital Test Flight (OFT-2) was delayed a year due to a corrosion problem in some of the propulsion system valves.

Teams were optimistic about a 2023 launch of the CFT mission, but the mission was delayed until 2024 as they worked through questions concerning the parachutes’ soft links and either mitigated or removed about a mile of flammable tape within the spacecraft.

Bloom Filter

Sometimes, you can tell Bloom filters are the wrong tool for the job, but when they're the right one you can never be sure.

Collections: On the Reign of Alexander III of Macedon, the Great?

This week, in part as a follow-on to our series on the contest between Hellenistic armies and Roman legions, I wanted to take the opportunity to talk about Alexander III, who you almost certainly know as Alexander the Great. But I want to discuss his reign with that title, ‘the Great’ (magnus in Latin or μέγας in Greek) stripped off, as Alexander III rather than merely assuming his greatness. In particular, I want to open the question of if Alexander was great and more to the point, if he was, what does that imply about our definitions of greatness?

It is hardly new for Alexander III to be the subject of as much mythology as fact; Alexander’s life was the subject of mythological treatment within living memory. Plutarch (Alex 46.4) relates an episode where the Greek historian Onesicritus read aloud in the court of Lysimachus – then king of Thrace, but who had been one of Alexander’s somatophylakes (his personal bodyguards, of which there were just seven at at time) – his history of Alexander and in his fourth book reached the apocryphal story of how Alexander met the Queen of the Amazons, Thalestris, at which Lysimachus smiled and asked, “And where was I at the time?” It must have been strange to Lysimachus, who had known Alexander personally, to see his friend and companion become a myth before his eyes.

Then, of course, there are the modern layers of mythology. Alexander is such a well-known figures that it has been, for centuries, the ‘doing thing’ to attribute all manner of profound sounding quotes, sayings and actions to him, functionally none of which are to be found in the ancient sources and most of which, as we’ll see, run quite directly counter to his actual character as a person.

So, much as we set out to de-mystify Cleopatra last year, this year I want to set out – briefly – to de-mystify Alexander III of Macedon. Only once we’ve stripped away the mythology and found the man can we then ask that key question: was Alexander truly great and if so, what does that say not about Alexander, but about our own conceptions of greatness?

Because this post has turned out to run rather longer than I expected, I’m going to split into two parts. This week, we’re going to look at some of the history of how Alexander has been viewed – the sources for his life but also the trends in the scholarship from the 1800s to the present – along with assessing Alexander as a military commander. Then we’ll come back next week and look at Alexander as an administrator, leader and king.

But first, if you like what you are reading here and want to help out this project, you can help this project and join my valued pezhetairoi by sharing this post – I rely on word of mouth for all of my recruits readers. And if you want to join the companions of the blog, you can buy your way by supporting this project on Patreon; much like the companions themselves, Patrons have special access to the king (as I try to always respond to messages on Patreon). If you want updates whenever a new post appears, you can click below for email updates or follow me on twitter (@BretDevereaux) for updates as to new posts as well as my occasional ancient history, foreign policy or military history musings, assuming there is still a Twitter by the time this post goes live. I am also on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) and (less frequently) Mastodon (@bretdevereaux@historians.social).

Sources

As always, we are at the mercy of our sources for understanding the reign of Alexander III. As noted above, within Alexander’s own lifetime, the scale of his achievements and impacts prompted the emergence of a mythological telling of his life, a collection of stories we refer to collectively now as the Alexander Romance, which is fascinating as an example of narrative and legend working across a wide range of cultures and languages, but is fundamentally useless as a source of information about Alexander’s life.

That said, we also know that several accounts of Alexander’s life and reign were written during his life and immediately afterwards by people who knew him and had witnessed the events. Alexander, for the first part of his campaign, had a court historian, Callisthenes, who wrote a biography of Alexander which survived his reign (Polybius is aware – and highly critical – of it, Polyb. 12. 17-22), though Callisthenes didn’t: he was implicated (perhaps falsely) in a plot against Alexander and imprisoned, where he died, in 327. Unfortunately, Callisthenes’ history doesn’t survive to the present (and Polybius sure thinks Callisthenes was incompetent in describing military matters in any event).

Via Wikipedia, a detail from the Alexander Mosaic, a late second century copy of what is thought to have been a late fourth or early third century original painting. The details of the militaria – arms and armor – seem to be quite accurate.

More promising are histories written by Alexander’s close companions – his hetairoi – who served as Alexander’s guards, elite cavalry striking force, officers and council of war during his campaigns. Three of these wrote significant accounts of Alexander’s campaigns: Aristobulus,1 Alexander’s architect and siege engineer, Nearchus, Alexander’s naval commander, and Ptolemy, one of Alexander’s bodyguards and infantry commanders, who will become Ptolemy I Soter, Pharaoh of Egypt. Of these, Aristobulus and Ptolemy’s works were apparently campaign histories covering the life of Alexander, whereas Nearchus wrote instead of his own voyages by sea down the Indus River, the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf which he called the Indike.

And you are now doubtless thinking, “amazing, three contemporary accounts, that’s awesome!” So I hope you will contain your disappointment when I follow with the inevitable punchline: none of these three works survives. We also know a whole slew of other, less reliable sounding histories (Plutarch lists works by Cleitarchus, Polycleitus, Onesicritus, Antigenes, Ister, Chares, Anticleides, Philo, two different Philips, Hecataeus, and Duris) do not survive either.

So what do we have?

Fundamentally, our knowledge of Alexander the Great is premised on four primary later works who wrote when all of these other sources (particularly Ptolemy and Aristobulus) still survived. These four authors are (in order of date): Diodorus Siculus (writing in the first century BC), Quintus Curtius Rufus (mid-first cent. AD), Plutarch (early second century AD) and Arrian (Lucius Flavius Arrianus, writing in the early second century AD). Of these, Diodorus’ work, the Bibliotheca historica is a ‘universal history,’ which of course means it is a mile wide and only an inch deep, but Book 17, which covers Alexander’s life, is intact and complete. Curtius Rufus’ work survives only incompletely, with substantial gaps in the text, including all of the first two books.

Plutarch’s Life of Alexander survives intact and is the most substantial of his biographies, but it is, like all of his Parallel Lives, relatively brief and also prone to Plutarch’s instinct to bend a story to fit his moralizing aims in writing. Which leaves, somewhat ironically, the last of these main sources, Arrian. Arrian was a Roman citizen of Anatolian extraction who entered the Senate in the 120s and was consul suffectus under Hadrian, probably in 130. He was then a legatus (provincial governor/military commander in Cappadocia, where Dio reports (69.15.1) that he checked an invasion by the Alani (a Steppe people). Arrian’s history, the Anabasis Alexandrou (usually rendered ‘Campaigns of Alexander’)2 comes across as a fairly serious, no-nonsense effort to compile the best available sources, written by an experienced military man. Which is not to say Arrian is perfect, but his account is generally regarded (correctly, I’d argue) as the most reliable of the bunch, though any serious scholarship on Alexander relies on collating all four sources and comparing them together.

Despite that awkward source tradition, what we have generally leaves us fairly well informed about Alexander’s actions as king. While we’d certainly prefer to have Ptolemy or Aristobolus, the fact that we have four writers all working from a similar source-base is an advantage, as they take different perspectives. Moreover, a lot of the things Alexander did – founding cities, toppling the Achaemenid Empire, failing in any way to prepare for succession – leave big historical or archaeological traces that are easy enough to track.

Towards Assessing Alexander

Those, of course, are the ancient sources, but what about modern scholarship? The historiography on Alexander is one of those things basically every ancient history graduate student is required to study for comprehensive exams, so I may cover it in brief. One may broadly describe the scholarly symphony Alexander as proceeding in three general ‘movements,’ as it were.3

The first movement, Alexander the Hero, begins with Johann Gustav Droysen (1808-1884) and his Geschichte Alexanders des Grossen (“History of Alexander the Great,” 1833). Droysen is the foundational ‘Great Man’ historian and for him Alexander is the prototypical Great Man of history around whom major events turn, shaped by his vision and power. That vision of Alexander in turn makes it into English most notably through William Woodthorpe Tarn (1869-1957) in his Alexander the Great and the Unity of Mankind (1933). For both Droysen and Tarn, there could be little question that Alexander was Great – indeed both great and also good – a human force propelling humanity itself into a better future.

That vision is itself something of a product of Droysen’s and Tarn’s time and place and there are reasons both in the sources and in the men themselves for skepticism. Droysen was an ardent supporter of Prussia and a German nationalist through the decades of German unification and clearly saw something of Prussia’s House Hohenzollern in his Argeads (that’s the family of Alexander III and his father Philip II). Just as Prussia ought to unify German (by conquest, if necessary!) so Alexander unified the Hellenistic world (by conquest). Indeed, Droysen neatly elides the Macedonian nobility (too small minded and resistant to Alexander’s grand project) to the German nobility, resisting unification, by calling the former junker. Tarn, meanwhile, was a British gentleman (and a patriot of the empire – at 55 he volunteered for service in WWI) for whom Alexander appears as the prototype of the ideal British gentlemen heading out to civilize foreign peoples, by force if necessary. Thus Alexander’s violence was fundamentally good, motivated – as was the violence of any good British colonial officer – by a belief in (Tarn’s term) the “unity of mankind.” Also, Alexander was, for Tarn, very much clearly not gay, for the same reason, despite the weight of the evidence on the question going rather the other way. Indeed, Tarn in particular, makes an almost herculean effort to strip Alexander of anything he perceived as a foibles or failing, despite the sources being very, very clear that Alexander III was a deeply flawed person that did some quite bad things.

I mean, the man speared one of his best friends to death in a drunken rage – a man who had saved his life. There are some things you can’t walk back.

A correction was almost inevitable as the world wars, particularly the second, took the shine off of trying to ‘unify mankind’ through bloody conquest and also the colonial project of imposing one’s culture by force more generally.

Thus comes the second movement: Alexander the Villain. The first major marker here is Fritz Schachermeyr (1895-1987) and his Alexander, der Grosse. Ingenium und Macht (1949) but it is an awkward one. Schachermeyr’s Alexander is a military genius driven to destructive madness by the megalomania his success brought on; his generals do not rebel against his grand design for lack of vision, but rather his army collapses from exhaustion trying to follow his increasingly mad vision. And now it is probably worth noting that Schachermeyr was a committed Nazi and an open adherent to Nazi race ideology during the war who only disowned his Nazism and racism in 1945 (when it would have been deeply unpleasant not to). His Alexander is thus a particular vision of Hitler. Not the way we’d think of him – Hitler as the hateful villain all the way through – but as a Nazi trying to understand the collapse of the Third Reich might: Alexander-Hitler as the genius driven mad by his success, driving his armies beyond the limit of their endurance in his megalomania, leading to collapse and failure.

In English, the turn to ‘Alexander the Villain’ comes a little later but in, perhaps, a purer form with the early work of Ernst Badian (1925-2011), particularly a scathing series of articles beginning in 1958.4 Badian blasts Tarn, in particular, quipping at one point that “Tarn’s Alexander is Droysen’s, “translated into the King’s English.”5 It was not a complement. Instead, Badian’s Alexander is militarily capable, but an insecure, lonely tyrant who ends up alienating all of the friends he doesn’t murder and whose failures of leadership lead to the failure of his regime and the collapse of his empire after his death. He is not, perhaps, the raw evil of Hitler, but there is little left to admire, much less love, in Badian’s understanding of Alexander.

The final movement is more difficult to name, but perhaps Alexander the Uninteresting will do: the age of scholarship that finds the figure of Alexander the Great less interesting either than his victims or the Macedonian state he (and others) ruled. The transition point is fairly clearly the work of A.B. Bosworth in two major volumes, Conquest and Empire: The Reign of Alexander the Great (1988) and Alexander and the East: The Tragedy of Triumph (1996). Initially, Bosworth, in many ways an apprentice to Badian, presents a fully-formed Badian-vision of a ruthless, arrogant, tyrannical, insecure, autocratic and glory-hounding Alexander, the villain of his own story: Alexander as a Spanish conquistador, an exceptional killer with no other skills destroying a civilization he is too boorish to know how to replace. But in that portrait, Bosworth issued a call for scholarship to shift to focus not on Alexander, but on his victims and indeed in the decades that followed, the spotlight has mostly been off Alexander himself.

Pierre Briant comes to mind immediately as taking the direct call to focus on Alexander’s victims with his From Cyrus to Alexander: A History of the Persian Empire (2002) sparking a renewed interest in the study of the Achaemenids. Briant’s vision of Darius III, Alexander’s opponent, is hardly flattering, though I’d note it sure seems like there is an effort underway to rehabilitate Darius III and try to make a capable Great King out him.6 This side of the movement in the scholarship has, however, been slow because doing it well requires a lot of language expertise: not just Greek and Latin, but perhaps also Babylonian, Old Persian and Egyptian. Not a lot of scholars have that kind of language expertise, both because it’s hard to learn that many languages, but also because it is hard to learn those eastern languages at all because they’re simply not taught in many universities. Indeed, the number shrinks over time, as language programs are often under siege at universities.

In the other direction, we have a pull to focus not on Alexander, but on his father, Philip II, most notably in the work of Eugene Borza, In the Shadow of Olympus (1990). That focus has tended to see Philip as the more interesting figure than Alexander, as Philip is the fellow that built the unbeatable military system Alexander would employ; Alexander merely pulls the trigger on an invasion Philip had already designed, with an army he had already built, commanded by officers he had already trained, backed by a political structure in Greece he had already secured. Alternately, I think some of the scholarship that in previous decades might have been focused on Alexander has instead shifted later, to the Hellenistic Antigonid kingdom which came to rule Macedon – after some twists and turns – after Alexander’s death.7 Fundamentally, both turns in the scholarship understand the Macedonian stateas fundamentally more interesting than any of its individual rulers.

For what it is worth, my sense is that everyone feels that the next ‘turn’ in Alexander scholarship, the start of the next movement in this story, is overdue, but it hasn’t come yet.8 And, not to disappoint in advance, but it isn’t going to come here: my take on Alexander is hardly earthshaking.

Still, I suspect readers at this point may already be rather surprised by just how far from the popular glowing image of Alexander the scholarship has come and so even my rather pedestrian take on the reign of Alexander III may do something to help you all understand why the scholarship has come to the place it has and also why this is pretty clearly a better place than it was in the 1930s.

In an effort to give Alexander a fair shake here, I want to consider him in three aspects: Alexander the Warlord, Alexander the King and finally Alexander the Leader. That is to say, I want to consider first his performance as a purely military leader – was Alexander III the military genius he is reputed to be? Then, we’ll look at Alexander the civil leader – was he dedicated to the ‘unity of mankind’ or otherwise a particularly effective or gifted administrator? Finally, I want to examine Alexander as a leader, judging him by the promises – explicit and implicit – that he forged, kept and broke with his followers: was Alexander a good sort of man to follow to the figurative ends of the earth?

The Legacy of Philip II

A different Alexander, Alexander Burns, had a good description of the various stages that students (and enthusiasts) who are ‘into’ military history move through, with the first two stages being “Paradigm Invocation,” where the student ‘knows’ something they’ve been told, but not why it is or why it is significant (“Alexander was a military genius!”), and then “Paradigm Rejection, where the student, having learned that some paradigms are incomplete or even wrong, turns on them rather too completely (“Alexander was nothing special.”) The ‘paradigm invocation’ is simple: Alexander fought four major battles and about two-dozen minor battles and won all of them, and therefore was an undefeated ‘military genius.’ The ‘paradigm rejection’ is, as is its wont, every bit as simple: Alexander won all of those battles because he inherited an army, officers and a tactical system from the actual great military reformer, Philip II.

In both cases, maturity in thinking about history (and military history) requires moving beyond the paradigm to the evidence in greater detail and with greater care, adding necessary context.

Alexander III becomes king in the summer of 336, at the age of twenty. By that point, the army he inherits had been at war more or less continuously since the start of the Third Sacred War in 356 which, conveniently, was also the year of his birth. Now, unfortunately for us, the sources for the reign of Alexander’s father, Philip II (r. 359-336) are both sparse and scattered. Ancient writers were far more interested in Alexander than Philip. That makes reconstructing Philip’s reign and military reforms difficult, but we can generally say a few things. First, the army of the Macedonian kingdom before Philip II was hardly a top-tier force. It seems to have been large, but lacking in heavy infantry. The aristocratic cavalry was good, but few in number. And the kingdom itself was prone to succession disputes spiraling into civil war.

Via Wikipedia, a map of the expansion of Macedonian controlled territory during the reign of Philip II. Philip controlled only the darkest orange area (and not all of it) at the start of his reign; by the end he controlled Macedon, Thrace, Thessaly and the Greek states of the League of Corinth.

Philip II made radical changes. He reorganized the infantry, drawing on new military ideas that were already probably brewing in Greece proper, arming them with two-handed pikes (the sarisa) and keeping them under arms for longer periods, allowing for greater training and drill.9 He also encourages esprit de corps by reframing his infantry as Pezhetairoi, ‘foot companions,’ tying them directly to the king. There is some reason to suppose this was more than just empty language and that Philip’s soldiers, by virtue of being on campaign, had more accesses to him as well. Finally, he reformed the Macedonian cavalry, the hetairoi or ‘companions’ (of the King), greatly expanding their number, drawing in both essentially the whole Macedonian aristocracy, but also using the institution as a tool to recruit Greek experts. In addition, after 352 or so, he is also the leader of the Thessalian League, giving him access also to the best cavalry in Greece.

In 338, Philip II took his army south, as part of a long and complicated rivalry with Athens and other Greek poleis we needn’t get into here. He was met with a Greek alliance that aimed to prevent him, now the ruler of a large and powerful kingdom, from asserting hegemony over Greece: Athens and Thebes made up the core of the coalition. The resulting battle at Chaeronea is, I think, instructive to the degree that Alexander is effectively inheriting not only an army, but a tactical system. Our accounts of the battle are frustratingly vague (the only full account is a very brief one, Diod. Sic. 16.86), but we can hazard a basic vision: Philip II took command of the Macedonian right (where the Companion cavalry will have been), while Alexander, at age 18, was given command of the other wing of cavalry (alongside, we are told by Diodorus, some carefully selected officers). Philip II seems to have first engaged and then refused his right (Polyaenus Strat 4.2.2), which created a rupture in the Greek lines between the Athenians who pressured Philip II and the Thebans who were being pressued on the far side, at which point Alexander hammered with the cavalry through the gap, leading to the collapse of the Greek army and Philip II’s great victory.

Via Wikipedia, a tetradrachma of Philip II with the laurel-wreathed head of Zeus on the obverse and a mounted youth on the reverse. The face given to Zeus here resembles the way we see Philip II depicted in busts (much as Alexander’s staters show Apollo looking an awful lot like Alexander), which I imagine was intentional.

Now remember how I described Alexander Battle? To recap, the basic formula for Alexander’s battles – modified slightly in each – is to position the phalanx in the center, with the Thessalian cavalry (and sometimes some light troops) covering the phalanx’s left wing, while Alexander sits on its right, with additional light troops covering his right and the medium-infantry hypaspists keeping his cavalry connected to the phalanx. The extreme right wing and the left wing stall (often being refused), while the right of the phalanx provides pressure that creates a rupture, which Alexander then hammers his cavalry through – with him at the front – in order to achieve decision. Alexander seems to form his army up to aim his cavalry hammer at where he imagines the ‘joints’ in an enemy army might be, to punch at a relatively weaker spot, not on a flank, but where the center joins the enemy left.

At Chaeronea, Philip II splits his cavalry between his wings, with the phalanx in the center, refusing his right flank, while the left flank of his infantry advanced, creating a rupture at the joint between the Thebans and the Athenians, which Alexander hammered the cavalry through, leading to victory. We don’t have detailed descriptions of Philip II’s battles – Chaeronea is the best we have – and it is really striking that the basic outlines of Alexander Battle are visible here as well. It might suggest that not only was Philip II the author of the army Alexander would take East, but also the tactical formula Alexander would seek to employ.

Note that Philip II’s legacy isn’t just the tactics and the army itself, it is also the companions. The key men that are going to enable Alexander’s early victories are Philip II’s men. Antipater, who Alexander can leave in Macedon to handle affairs in Greece (and who crushes a Spartan effort to oust Macedonian control)? One of Philip’s men, probably in his service for most of Alexander’s life. Parmenio, the infantry commander who successfully holds the flank in Alexander’s great battles? One of Philip’s men, around as old as Antipater. Krateros, who commanded the phalanx at Issus? One of Philip’s men – fifteen years or so Alexander’s senior. Kleitos the Black, who saved Alexander’s life at the Granicus and commanded the royal squadron of the Companion Cavalry at Gaugamela? Another of Philip’s men, twenty years older than Alexander. And Eumenes – a Greek – who was Alexander’s secretary and bookkeeper? One of Philip’s men.

Meanwhile, Alexander’s other crop of key officers were the syntrophoi, the men of his own age and generation with whom he had grown up. On the one hand, these are Alexander’s friends, but on the other hand they were at court because they were picked to be at court by Philip II. This, by the by, are men like Ptolemy, Hephaistion, Perdikkas, Nearchus. Almost no member of Alexander’s inner circle had not served under his father or been tutored in his father’s court, simply as a product of Alexander’s age.

So now, Philip II has built the army for Alexander, arrayed the necessary political structures in Greece (which, admittedly, Alexander will have to reinforce by burying Thebes), developed the tactical system which Alexander will use to win his battles and trained the officers who can conduct that tactical system. And then, just to top it off, Philip II was already planning the invasion of the Achaemenid Empire when he was assassinated. Indeed, Parmenio and several others were already in Anatolia with an army to prepare a beachhead for the main effort when Philip II was killed. So Alexander likely inherited a fully-formed invasion plan as well, though I suspect it only went as far as detaching western Asia Minor from the Achaemenids, not the whole empire.

So what does that leave Alexander? Quite a lot, actually.

Alexander the Warlord

We may begin with the tactical: there is a difference between noting that Philip II and Alexander III seem to have had the same basic vision of the battle they wanted to fight – we might say they shared a doctrine – and these battles all being carbon-copies of each other. I think it is fair to say that Alexander has an ideal pitched battle in his head (which he seems – remember how weak our evidence is – to share with his father) that he wants to play out on the field, but there’s an awful lot that goes into getting the actual battle to play out into that ideal formula for victory and each of Alexander’s major battles poses different problems for him to get to that distinctive Alexander Battle climax.

This isn’t the place to go through each of Alexander’s victories in detail: for one, that would be a long post series of its own and for another, you can just read the sources too. But for readers for whom these battles all kind of blend together, I want to note the unique challenges each engagement presented Alexander, where he had to figure out, with the resources he had, how to get to that Alexander Battle formula.

The first is the Battle of the Granicus (334) and the key problem here is, well, the Granicus river, which – as Arrian has Parmenio note – had high banks and deep spots sure to disrupt a formation moving across (Arr. Anab. 1.13.4-5). And while Alexander’s army was probably comparable in size and possibly larger, the Persian force had a lot of cavalry.10 Alexander seems to have recognized – we’ll come back to this – that operationally, he couldn’t afford to wait and has to force the crossing. So his problem here is how to get the army over the river in a shape to fight and win on the other side.

Via Wikipedia, one map of the battle. The point on which reconstructions mostly differ here is the diagonal direction of Alexander’s advance. Arrian is clear he advances at an angle and ends up in the center, but some reconstructions (e.g. the Landmark) have him advance diagonally to the right (away from the Persian center) behind his screening force and then roll up the Persian cavalry edge-to-center, whereas here Frank Martini has him advance diagonally to the left, having him more directly open a route for the phalanx to come up. Martini’s solution has the advantage of putting Alexander in the fight where Arrian says he is, (Arr. Anab. 1.16.1), but note that Hammond (op. cit.) favors the opposite solution.

The battle is a little hard to unpack (Arrian is our best source and his account is a confusing read), but it’s clear that the Persian force formed up with its infantry on the high ground behind the river and the cavalry right on the river-bank to contest the crossing. Alexander lines his army up all along the river in fighting formation (Arr. Anab. 1.14.1-3) which threatens the entire Persian cavalry line, holding its center and right in place, while Alexander aims to break over the river on his right (the Persian left). The effort to push across is a complex maneuver: Alexander has some of his light infantry (the Paionians) support his lead squadron of cavalry making what seems to have been a direct crossing, while Alexander crosses at a diagonal with the bulk of the cavalry pushing towards the left, essentially crossing behind that lead squadron. While the lead squadron is repulsed, that maneuver allows Alexander to get over the river and into a shock engagement with the Persian cavalry, for which his horsemen were better equipped (Arr. Anab. 1.15.4-1.16.2). That in turn allows the rest of Alexander’s cavalry following on (Arr. Anab. 1.15.8) to get over the river and finally for the phalanx itself in Alexander’s center to do so (Plut. Alex. 16.12).

As I read it then, Alexander first essentially sacrifices his lead cavalry squadron to pull the Persians out of position and hold their attention, to get the main body of his cavalry over the river and then begins levering the Persian cavalry off of their positions bit by bit to enable the rest of his army to cross. Once the Persian cavalry was pushed off the field, he then engages the infantry force – mostly Greek mercenaries, according to Arrian – in the front with the phalanx and then shatters it with cavalry. Note that Alexander lets the Persian cavalry go, focusing instead on securing his victory by annihilating the enemy infantry force. The outlines of the Alexander Battle are there, but so heavily distorted by the terrain as to be hard to see. Or, another way to put it is Alexander has successfully and adroitly modified the doctrine to get his ideal engagement.

Map via Wikipedia, which differs somewhat from Arrian’s account and the Landmark‘s reconstruction of it, but it will serve. Note that Alexander, according to Arrian, does this march fast, learning about Darius and holding a council of war in the evening, marching immediately on the following day, getting over the Pinarus the next day and then camping the day after that (Arr. Anab. 2.6.2).

As Issus (333) the problem is at least conceptually simple: Alexander is wildly outnumbered. His solution is, in part, to find a confined battlefield at Issus, which actually requires some adroit campaign maneuvering. Alexander is, after all, at Mallos when he hears that Darius III is moving into the region with his army, at which point Alexander books it into the Levant and down the coast to Myiandros in just a few days, getting his army out of the relatively wide spaces of Cilicia into the long narrow space between the Amanus Mountains and the Mediterranean coast. Darius follows, allowing Alexander to set the battle in a relatively narrow place, in this case along the Pinaros River at Issus.

Via Wikipedia, a map of the Battle of Issus, in particular Alexander’s breach through. Note that he doesn’t then keep going – but instead circles back around to help his beleaguered left, striking the Persian right (which was pushing forward) in the rear, even though that means letting Darius III get away.

Alexander then plays out a fairly classic Alexander Battle formula, refusing and holding on his left (under Parmenio, clearly an exceedingly capable commander himself) while hammering through on the center-right with his companions backed up by his elite hypaspists. Once again, he has to make adjustments, such as posting his best light infantry, the Agrianians, on the high ground to cover his own right flank as he hammers his way through. More critically, he has the presence of mind to identify the center of gravity in the Persian army as Darius III himself and targets the king. Alexander then lets Darius III escape, because he has to circle back to bail out his left wing, sealing his victory. Put a pin in that, we’ll come back to it.

Yet more maps via Wikipedia, these maps are in a series by Frank Martini and are pretty good, although I would note there are even more detailed maps in the Landmark Arrian.

Gaugamela (331) poses similar problems – Darius III’s army is very big – but the northern Tigris Basin (the area of operations, broadly construed) simply doesn’t provide the kind of narrow terrain Alexander used at Issus. So once again, he has to get clever: he now knows Darius is the weak-point in the Persian Army and that if he can run the Alexander Battle playbook against the center of Darius’ line – use the right edge of phalanx to create a disruption, then hammer through with the hypaspists and companion cavalry – he can win. So he positions Parmenio for the standard left-flank holding action, but also now puts his extreme right in an oblique as well, partially refusing it and sets a second Greek phalanx behind his first (the Macedonian one) to cover any gaps and provide more resilience, all to buy him the time to deliver that Alexander Battle hammer blow.

And it works, with Alexander shattering Darius’ center and sending the king into flight. But once again, Alexander becomes aware – this time by messenger – that his left under Parmenio was in severe trouble, as the Persians there were not aware that Darius had fled (Arr. Anab 3.14.4-15.4). And again, Alexander, with Darius fleeing before him turns and bails out Parmenio.

Of course that leaves the last major battle, the Battle of the Hydaspes (326), which is certainly complex, seeing Alexander fighting unfamiliar forces (elephants!) on unfamiliar ground, but the main tactical challenge and Alexander’s solution is fairly simple to explain, if difficult to execute. His problem, of course, is the river Hydaspes itself, which Alexander wouldn’t be able to cross directly into Porus’ army (it is a fairly substantial river and was swollen in the season, Arr. Anab. 5.9.4). So Alexander first declares to his troops that his plan is to wait for the river to go down in the dry season (Arr. Anab. 5.10.1), but then begins a long series of feints which eventually create the opening he needs to slip across the river (Arr. Anab. 5.10-13), which in turn sets conditions for the successful pitched battle to follow.

What I want to note here is the character of Alexander’s military leadership. On the one hand, Alexander invents no new tactics and employs only one clever ruse in this whole set of battles. And here we get into the nature of what we may term military ‘genius’ – a term long-time readers may note I avoid. This is not because I think the term is inappropriate – Clausewitz uses it (drink!), so it has pedigree – but because I think the way most popular readers understand it is unhelpful. The matter is either reduced to a sort of preternatural cleverness in employing ruses and deception or else the military genius is a chessmaster ‘controlling for every contingency.’ Actual military leadership is rarely like either of these things. Most battle plans are quite simple and ‘tricks’ in war (strategems) are also relatively simple. Indeed, no less than Clausewitz points this out, famously (drink!):

Everything [in war] looks simple; the knowledge required does not look remarkable, the strategic options are so obvious that by comparison the simplest problem of higher mathematics has an impressive scientific dignity. Once war has actually been seen, the difficulties become clear; but it is still extremely hard to describe the unseen, all-pervading element that brings about this change in perspective.
Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult.11

Alexander’s genius is not in clever ruses or brilliant ideas. His solutions are simple and workmanlike, as we’ve seen. Nor does he ‘control every contingency’ – he is forced, like any general, to allow vast space for uncertainty and chance. But he has a fantastic, intuitive grasp of how fast his army can march, how long Parmenio can hold that flank, how easily (or not) his cavalry can break through. Clausewitz (drink!) goes on at length (Book I, Chapter 3) about the need for a general to have this intuitive sense, to be able to know things from a mix of experience and talent at the stroke of the eye (coup d’oeil). Instead, Alexander repeatedly come up with relatively simple solutions that he knows, from experience and intuition, his army can execute. His plans are never too baroque and complex but always address the problem in an effective way.

I focused here on the battles, because they’re the easiest to explain in this sort of space, but I think Alexander’s excellent intuitive grasp of his army’s capabilities actually comes out more clearly if one begins to look at the logistics of what he is doing. Alexander, after all, is taking an army of around 45,000 men and marching them through mostly hostile territory for eleven years. He has to obtain food as he goes, in terrain that he only has imperfect knowledge of. And apart from the brutal march through the Gedrosian Desert (which seems to have been intentional, as if to punish his army for its mutiny), he doesn’t make mistakes in this. Remember that an army like this on the move only has, at most, a few weeks of food on hand at any given time, so he is managing a tight-rope balancing act continually, gauging when he has time for a battle or a siege or when he has to keep marching. And he manages it so flawlessly, you could read all of the sources and barely notice. For those who want more on this, the detailed study is D.W. Engels, Alexander the Great and the Logistics of the Macedonian Army (1978). Doubtless, some of that is luck, but a general that just gets lucky every time is a good general.

And beyond the rational aspect of military planning, there is the emotional aspect as well (which Clausewitz, keep drinking, also discusses), which has to be quite carefully balanced. A good general cannot be rash or reckless, but also cannot be vacillating or indecisive. Most of all, a good general has to master themselves, overcoming their own emotions in extremely emotionally charged moments to reach sound decisions.

And here I want to come back to something Alexander did in those battles above, at moments of extreme heightened emotions, three times: having shattered the elite core of the Persian Army (the cavalry at Granicus and Darius’ guard at Issus and Gaugamela) and having them fleeing before them he does not pursue. This is the task, you will recall, Antiochus III – otherwise a clearly very capable commander – failed at repeatedly.

Consider what a sore test of generalship this is, taking Issus and Gaugamela in particular. There is Alexander, at the head of his cavalry, his enemy fleeing before him, the prize of his campaign – Darius III – there for the taking if he will just reach out and grasp it. And yet in this moment, Alexander has to do a lot of difficult things very quickly to win; simple things – but difficult. First, he has to master himself: he has just been personally in combat, leading his companions directly, with all of the mix of emotions and adrenaline that implies. But he is either observing, or getting a messenger telling him, that his left flank is in trouble. The first thing he has to do is think rationally and do so quickly. Then he has to make the right decision, keeping in mind all of the reasons of personal glory which might lead him to rationalize his way to saying that Parmenio can hold his own, or that Darius is the more important prize. Then he has to recover control of his cavalry, rapidly reform them and have them follow him away from the loot-filled enemy camp and the defenseless, fleeing enemy towards enemies that are still in good order, fighting and dangerous, charging back into death and peril. And he has to do that in the chaos of an ongoing engagement!

And he does it, without fail, every time.

Alexander’s campaigns are so long and complex that we could spend ages analyzing both the soundness of his decisions and then his ability to actually get his army to carry out his plans, but I think these examples serve to make the point. For reasons we will get to next week, I do not think, had Philip II not done it for him, Alexander III could have reformed the Macedonian army, trained the Companions, or developed his doctrine. As I am going to argue in part II, Alexander was simply not that kind of deep thinker or leader; when he tries reforms, they mostly fail and when he brings younger men into the Macedonian leadership, they are mostly not the equals of Philip II’s old war horses.

But as a general, a leader of armies in battle and on campaign, Alexander was extremely skilled, almost never setting a foot wrong in handling the simple-but-difficult elements of leadership. Fellow ancient historian Paul Johstono offered a quip a while back on Twitter that I think makes the point perfectly:

Alexander has a lot of failings, and we’re going to get to them. But he was unnaturally composed and at least when it came to doing violence (and getting others to do violence effectively) he was highly competent, almost absurdly so. Not because he had some sort of world-shaking flash of brilliant insight, of ‘genius’ in the popular sense, but because he had a composed, calm but determined mind with an intuitive grasp of what his army was capable of and what simple solutions would work and be required in the moment, genius in the Clausewitzian sense (drink!). The question that raises, of course, is a value judgement: is it enough to merely be good at killing and destroying in order to be great?

Next time, however, we’re going to take Alexander III off of the battlefield and see how he fares. Not as well, it turns out.

Live coverage: SpaceX to launch Falcon 9 booster on a record-breaking 21st flight

A SpaceX Falcon 9 second stage creates a so-called ‘jellyfish’ effect as it streaks across the sky over the Atlantic Ocean and a cruise ship out on the horizon. The Starlink 6-59 mission launched on May 17, 2024. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

SpaceX reached a new reusability milestone with its Falcon 9 rocket with a Starlink launch from Florida on Friday night. The first stage booster, tail number B1062, launched for a record 21st time, the first in SpaceX’s rocket fleet to do so.

The launch of Starlink 6-59 mission added 23 more satellites to the growing low Earth orbit internet constellation and was the company’s 36th dedicated Starlink launch of the year.

Since making its debut in November 2020, B1062 launched two GPS satellites, eight astronauts over two missions (Inspiration4 and Ax-1) along with 13 Starlink flights. To date, it sent 553 payloads to orbit, including the two Crew Dragon spacecraft.

Prior to its May 17 flight, it most recently launched about a month ago on the Starlink 6-49 mission. Like last time, about 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1062 landed on the SpaceX droneship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas.’ This was the 70th booster landing using ASOG and the 309th Falcon 9 booster landing to date.

According to the most recent statistics published by expert orbital tracker and astronomer Jonathan McDowell, as of the morning of May 17, there were 6,017 total Starlink satellites on orbit and 5,941 in operation.

Prior to the launch of the Starlink 6-59 mission, a total of 6,436 satellites launched to LEO with 788 going up in 2024.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 second stage creates a so-called ‘jellyfish’ effect as it streaks across the sky over the Atlantic Ocean and a cruise ship out on the horizon. The Starlink 6-59 mission launched on May 17, 2024. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Starship Flight Four development

While SpaceX was preparing for its Friday night Falcon 9 launch, it has also been busy down in southern Texas working towards the fourth integrated flight test of its Starship rocket.

The nearly 400-foot-tall rocket was stacked at the launch pad at SpaceX’s Starbase facility on Wednesday, May 15. The following day, it conducted a partial wet dress rehearsal where it practiced loading liquid methane and liquid oxygen onboard the vehicle.

A launch license from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) allowing for the next flight test of the vehicle is still pending, but in a May 11 reply on X (formerly Twitter), SpaceX founder Elon Musk suggested that a launch was “probably three to five weeks” away.

In an event hosted by the Harlingen Economic Development Corporation on May 14, Kathy Leuders, SpaceX’s Starbase general manager, said they are working towards having a license by the end of May or beginning of June. 

“We’re going be ready as always. We’re going to have the vehicle stacked and the first day we get that license, we’re going to fly,” Leuders said.

She also noted in her talk that have also begun testing Starship rockets beyond the fourth flight. In response to an audience question, she addressed an issue on Ship 31 captured by LabPadre’s cameras, which shows a pulsating flashing coming from the rocket.

“We were testing our next round of vehicles, next round of Starships and we had a test anomaly that we’re assessing right now and understanding what does that mean,” Leaders said. “We’re always working on vehicles, but when there’s a problem on a vehicle that’s in the flow, you want to make sure that you can separate the cause of that problem from your flight vehicle. And so what the teams are doing right now is really going in and saying is it the same design exactly? Is there some other reason for us to have separation to make sure we’re not going into a flight test with there being an issue.”

While SpaceX hasn’t commented further on the anomaly, by moving forward with the wet dress rehearsal on May 16, they likely either fixed the issue or feel comfortable that it would not impact Ship 29, which is being used on IFT-4.

Ship 29 is stacked on top of Booster 11 ahead of a wet dress rehearsal tanking test of the fully integrated Starship rocket on May 16, 2024. Image: SpaceX

System tests have failed

When we introduced a default setup for system tests in Rails 5.1 back in 2016, I had high hopes. In theory, system tests, which drive a headless browser through your actual interface, offer greater confidence that the entire machine is working as it ought. And because it runs in a black-box fashion, it should be more resilient to implementation changes. But I'm sad to report that I have not found any of this to be true in practice. System tests remain as slow, brittle, and full of false negatives as they did a decade ago.

I'm sure there are many reasons for this state of malaise. Browsers are complicated, UI driven by JavaScript is prone to timing issues, and figuring out WHY a black-box test has failed is often surprisingly difficult. But the bottom line for me is that system tests no longer seem worth the effort the majority of the time. Or said another way, I've wasted far more time getting system tests to work reliably than I have seen dividends from bugs caught.

Which gets to the heart of why we automate testing. We do it for the quick feedback loop on changes, we do it to catch regressions, but most of all, we do it to become confident that the system works. These are all valid goals, but that doesn't mean system testing is the best way to fulfill them.

Now I'm not advocating you throw out all your system tests. Just, you know, probably most of them. System tests work well for the top-level smoke test. The end-to-end'ness has a tendency to catch not problems with the domain model or business logic, but some configuration or interaction that's preventing the system from loading correctly at all. Catching that early and cheaply is good.

The stickiest point, however, is not testing business logic, which model and controller tests do better and cheaper, but testing UI logic. Which means testing JavaScript. And I'll say I'm not sure we're there yet on the automated front. 

The method that gives me the most confidence that my UI logic is good to go is not system tests, but human tests. Literally clicking around in a real browser by hand. Because half the time UI testing is not just about "does it work" but also "does it feel right". No automation can tell you that.

HEY today has some 300-odd system tests. We're going through a grand review to cut that number way down. The sunk cost fallacy has kept us running this brittle, cumbersome suite for too long. Time to cut our losses, reduce system tests to a much smaller part of the confidence equation, and embrace the human element of system testing. Maybe one day we can hand that task over to AI, but as of today, I think we're better off dropping the automation.

The culture of Hollywood vs. the culture of Bollywood

And a comment: “In Bollywood movies throughout multiple eras, the most shameful thing has always been disrespect of parents/family. By a wide margin.”

The post The culture of Hollywood vs. the culture of Bollywood appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 2.1% Year-over-year

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 May
The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance from the previous week and positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 May. ...

5-11 May 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

Occupancy: 66.1% (+2.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.14 (+4.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$107.24 (+6.6%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.

Friday assorted links

1. Sriram Krishnan, memos.

2. Making students compete against GPT for writing assignments.

3. Is the northern Italian city of Lecco the background for the Mona Lisa?

4. In America, more and more girls’ names are ending in the letter “a.”

5. More on the anti-cavity thing, this guy is very skeptical.

6. How frames can change pictures.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Europe is uncertain whether its ambitious Mercury probe can reach the planet

An artist's rendering of the BepiColombo mission, a joint ESA/JAXA project, which will take two spacecraft to the harsh environment of Mercury.

An artist's rendering of the BepiColombo mission, a joint ESA/JAXA project, which will take two spacecraft to the harsh environment of Mercury. (credit: ESA)

This week the European Space Agency posted a slightly ominous note regarding its BepiColombo spacecraft, which consists of two orbiters bound for Mercury.

The online news release cited a "glitch" with the spacecraft that is impairing its ability to generate thrust. The problem was first noted on April 26, when the spacecraft's primary propulsion system was scheduled to undertake an orbital maneuver. Not enough electrical power was delivered to the solar-electric propulsion system at the time.

According to the space agency, a team involving its own engineers and those of its industrial partners began working on the issue. By May 7 they had made some progress, restoring the spacecraft's thrust to about 90 percent of its original level. But this is not full thrust, and the root cause of the problem is still poorly understood.

Read 10 remaining paragraphs | Comments

Paranoia and desperation in the AI gold rush

I've never seen so much paranoia in technology about missing out on The Next Big Thing as with AI. Companies seem less excited about the prospects than they are petrified that its going to kill them. Maybe that fear is justified, maybe it's not, but what's incontestable is the kind of desperation it's leading to. Case in point: Slack.

So Salesforce just announced that they'll be training their Slack AI models on people's private messages, files, and other content. And they're going to do so by default, lest you send them a specially formatted email to feedback@slack.com. I mean, really, feedback? It's the kind of process that invites a quip about some knuckle-sandwich feedback to their face. But I digress. 

Presumably this is because some Salesforce executives got the great idea in a brainstorming sesh that the way to catch up to the big players in AI is by just ignoring privacy concerns all together. If you can't beat the likes of OpenAI in scanning the sum of public human knowledge, maybe you can beat them by scanning all the confidential conversations about new product strategies, lay-off plans that haven't been announced yet, or private financial projections for 2025?

I mean imagine the delight some CEO might feel when they start typing out the announcement to lay off 30% of the workforce, and Slack autocompletes the text with the most anodyne distillation from five competitors doing the same? All you have to do is edit out, say, Asana in your layoff completion, and voila, you'll have saved at least 8 minutes typing out the corporate slop yourself.

Whether the vision of that gleams bright or dystopian probably depends on how well your inner compass is tuned to the kind of AI KPIs pushing product managers in charge of acquired chat products at large tech companies.

But the more interesting point to me is what this says about the broad paranoia and desperation in the AI gold rush. Things are moving fast enough that we'll probably see more such flagrant transgressions of trust and privacy, if there's even a sliver of a chance that it can provide an edge in the race for a better chatbot. Buckle up!

Why Accelerate Deployment?

First published October, 2010. I had just debuted a new talk called Software G Forces, about how development must change as deployment goes from yearly to quarterly to monthly to weekly to daily to hourly. Practices essential at one pace are fatal a couple of increments later.

The premise of my recent Software G Forces talk is that deployment cycles are shrinking, and that what constitutes effective software development at one cycle (say annual deployments) can be fatal at another (like daily deployment). Each transition—annual→quarterly→monthly→weekly→daily→hourly—requires a different approach to development. Everyone can find their current deployment cycle in the sequence above and everyone is under pressure to shrink the cycle.

Almost everyone. I gave a workshop based on the G Forces model in Israel recently and one workgroup made it clear that their current deployment cycle was just fine. As a followup, someone else asked the fundamental question, “Why should we deploy more frequently?” My inspiration for the talk was my long-standing observation that cycles are shrinking, but I never really thought about why, so I didn’t have a good answer. This post, then, gives me a chance to think about why to shrink deployment cycles. (I’ll be giving the talk in Hamburg on Thursday, November 4, 2010 if you’d like to see it live.)

Competition

The obvious reason to deploy more frequently is to get a jump on the competition. If you are in a head-to-head competition where features matter and you can bring them out faster, you should win. If the villain gets ahead, you can rapidly catch up. If they get behind, you can keep them from catching up. Analogies to the OODA loop come to mind.

When I tried to come up with examples of such competition, though, I had a hard time finding any recently. The days of word processors competing on feature lists is long gone, resulting as it does in bloat and complexity. One recent example is Bing versus Google. Even there, the struggle is more to learn about user behavior more quickly than the competition, not a strict feature battle. It would be an advantage if one of them could deploy weekly and the other only monthly, but the winner still would be the one who understood users best.

Scaling

A lesson I learned from my officemate at Oregon, David Meyer (now a director at Cisco), is that as systems grow in complexity, every element is potentially coupled to every other element. This suggests that systems be made as simple as possible to keep that N^2 from blowing up too far, and it suggests that changes be made one at a time. If any change can potentially affect any part of the system, then introducing two changes at once is much more complicated to debug than introducing one change. Was the problem change A? Change B? Some interaction of A and B? Or was it just a coincidence? Introducing one change at a time keeps the cost of maintenance in check.

At the same time, systems need to grow rapidly. You need many changes but you can only introduce one change at a time. One way to reconcile the conflicting needs is to reduce the cycle time. If you can change a system in tiny, safe steps but you can make those steps extremely quickly, then it can look from the outside like you are making big changes.

Timothy Fitz, formerly of IMVU, told a story that brought this lesson home to me. The discipline they came to was that as soon as they said to themselves, “That change couldn’t possibly break anything,” they deployed immediately. If you weren’t at least a little worried, why would you even say that? By making the overhead of deployment vanishingly small, they could create value with every deployment. Either the deployment was fine, in which case the engineer regained confidence, or the deployment broke, in which case the engineer learned something about the sensitivities of the system.

Waste

In Toyota Production System, Taiichi Ohno makes an analogy between inventory and water in a river. By lowering the water level in the river (reducing inventory), you can uncover previously hidden rocks (identify bottlenecks). Undeployed software is inventory. By deploying in smaller batches, you can identify bottlenecks in your software process.

Startups have a vital need to eliminate waste. Because many of the assumptions on which a startup are based are likely to prove false, most startups need to iterate to be successful. If the team can learn to learn from each iteration and can make those iterations short and cheap, then the whole enterprise has a greater chance of succeeding overall. Startups have the initial advantage of no code and no customers, so establishing a rapid deployment rhythm is relatively easy, although maintaining that rhythm through growth can be a challenge.

Fun

The final reason I thought of for accelerating the deployment cycle is the adventure. Especially if someone claims it is impossible, establishing a rapid rhythm is simply fun and satisfying. Don’t underestimate the role of fun in driving innovation.

Conclusion

There are my reasons for accelerating deployment: responding to (or staying ahead of) competition, scaling safely, identifying waste, and fun. My next post will look take a more abstract look at how accelerating deployment works, through its effects on latency, throughput, and variance.

Commercial plug–the switching costs between tools becomes more significant as the deployment cycle shrinks. That’s why JUnit Max runs tests automatically and displays test results right in the source code. [ed: JUnit Max is sadly long gone]

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April & 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April & 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets

A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.23 million in April, up 1.0% from March’s preliminary pace and up 0.2% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace.  Unadjusted sales should show a significantly larger YOY % increase, as there were two more business days this April compared to last April.

  Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 6% from last April.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Wednesday, May 22nd. The consensus is for 4.18 million SAAR, down from 4.19 million in March.
...
Closed Existing Home SalesThis is a year-over-year increase NSA for these markets. However, there were two more working days in April 2024 compared to April 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted will be lower year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.

If sales increased YoY in April, this will be the first YoY increase since August 2021, following 31 consecutive months with a YoY decline in sales.
There is much more in the article.

Which Supreme Court Justices Are ‘Stop the Stealers’?

Given that six of the nine Supreme Court justices are rightwing conservatives, it stands to reason that some of them actually think Democrats stole the election. Here’s my take on each of them:

  • Thomas: Lol. Given his wife’s involvement with Trump’s attempt to overturn the election results, obviously he’s a Stop the Stealer.
  • Alito: Not only was he seen flying a flag upside down while hearing an election-related case, which is often used as a symbol by Stop the Stealers (though he claims his wife did it in response to uncivil yard signs. Lol), but he’s a congenital asshole who thinks he’s better than everyone, especially Democratic voters. Definitely.
  • Barrett: I would be surprised if she were a Stop the Stealer. I think she’s bonkers on everything else (e.g., plz b nice to my smol judicial frens while they make it easier for you to die in childbirth), but I just don’t think she buys that particular conspiracy.
  • Kavanaugh: On the one hand, he was a 2000 election Brooks Brothers rioter–it’s how he made his movement conservative bones, so there’s definitely the potential for motivated reasoning to turn him into a Stop the Stealer. On the other hand, he’s a Chevy Chase Republican of a certain age (I know the type), and conspiracism is just so gauche. He’s a maybe.
  • Gorsuch: he’s so batshit crazy, who can tell? He seems motivated, to a considerable extent, by revenge for the criticism his mother received as a (very awful) head of the EPA. How that translates into support for Stop the Steal is anyone’s guess.
  • Roberts: His entire career has been built around repealing the Voting Rights Act, so a form of motivated reasoning could definitely lead him to Stop the Steal. That said, he has struck me as someone who is typically somewhat aware of reality. Unknown.

The caveat to all of this is they all lied during their confirmation hearings (at the very least, about abortion), so this is a bit of a mug’s game.

Anyway, two definites, and three possibles. Happy Friday everybody!

Sperm donation from Denmark to the UK and elsewhere

 The Daily Mail has the story:

'They invaded us once by boat and now they're doing it with sperm!' Why hundreds of British women are giving birth to 'Viking babies' conceived with Danish donors

"These are the main Danish export products - beer, Lego and sperm!"'

"So why are so many British women going Danish? According to Dr Alan Pacey, a fertility expert at the University of Sheffield, one of the reasons is a shortage of homegrown sperm.

'We don't have enough donors in the UK to meet the national need,' he explains. 'We don't have the clinic infrastructure sufficient to recruit enough donors - even when men want to donate.

...

"'The NHS is used to treating patients and you get a fee for treating patients. You don't get a fee for screening a donor that you may not ultimately accept.'

"Compounding the problem for British clinics is the 2005 law that forces men to waive their anonymity, meaning sperm donors face the prospect of offspring turning up on their doorstep once they reach the age of 18.

"Nevertheless, although Danish clinics, among them the world's largest sperm bank, Cryos, cannot sell semen from anonymous donors to British women, business is booming thanks to the huge numbers of local men happy to sign up anyway.

...

"Experts such as Laura Witjens, CEO of the National Gamete Donation Trust, say the excellent customer service deployed by Copenhagen's sperm banks has also contributed to the Viking baby boom.

'It's much easier for a British clinic to order sperm from Denmark which is Fed-exed the next day than to try and recruit their own donors and all the hassle that goes with them,' says Witjens.

'The Danish model is customer service driven. It knows how to deal well with customers, it has a good website, and that's what we could do in the UK as well - it's not rocket science.'


HT: Mario Macis


Early Q2 GDP Tracking: 1.9% to 3.6%

From BofA:
2Q US GDP tracking is down a tenth from our official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar to 1.9% q/q saar [May 17th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We raised our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +3.2% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to +2.5%, but we lowered our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 by 0.1pp to +1.2% (vs. +1.6% originally reported). [May 16th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.6 percent on May 16, down from 3.8 percent on May 15. [May 16th estimate]

Listen To This: For Whom The Bell Polls

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh analyze the presidential polling landscape plus some breaking news about the debates.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Netflix Strikes Three-Year Deal to Broadcast NFL Games on Christmas Day

Henry Goldblatt, writing for Tudum, Netflix’s splendidly named in-house blog:

Netflix has an early Christmas gift for you — but it won’t fit under the tree. On Dec. 25, 2024, we’ll be the global home of the NFL’s two Christmas Day marquee games: the Super Bowl LVII-winning Chiefs vs Steelers and Ravens vs. Texans. And mark your calendar for Christmas Day in 2025 and 2026 when we’ll be streaming at least one holiday game each year as part of this three-season deal.

My two questions:

First, who’s going to announce the games?

Second, how strong a bid did Apple make to get these games?

 ★ 

Samsung Pepsis Its Pants Again

Speaking of Apple’s “Crush” ad, Samsung has posted a “response”, depicting a woman guitarist sitting atop a paint-splash-strewn platform standing in for a hydraulic press, with the slogan “We would never crush creativity. #UnCrush”

Rather than sit back and enjoy Apple own-goaling itself last week, they couldn’t resist gracelessly piling on, accomplishing nothing but to remind everyone that they’re Pepsi to Apple’s Coke — content to sit in second place forever, copying not just Apple’s hardware and software designs, but even parodying Apple’s ads. This one is the equivalent of picking ideas out of Apple’s trash. Sad.

Update: This marketing strategy didn’t turn out well for Commodore.

 ★ 

New iPad Pros Perform Well in Bend Tests

Benjamin Mayo, 9to5Mac:

The new iPad Pro is here and the inevitable YouTube stress tests are already online. JerryRigEverything and AppleTrack posted their bend test videos, and both seemingly came to the same conclusion: the new iPad Pro holds up well to extreme force and seems pretty resistant to bending during normal use.

AppleTrack repeated the same bends with the M2 iPad Pro and the new M4 iPad Pro to compare, and whereas the M4 iPad Pro came away almost unscathed, the M2 iPad Pro had a definitive curl in the corner near the cameras. JerryRigEverything praised the device for its “black magic levels of structural integrity”, at least when bent horizontally.

Good to know that they really are bend-resistant. But I can’t help but see some incongruity between the performative outrage over Apple’s “Crush” ad last week and the fact that the top-trending tech videos on YouTube today are of people destroying the very same iPads the “Crush” ad was promoting.

 ★ 

Not Our Problem

I debated for a bit how to explain why I was publishing this note from TPM Reader JB. I happily publish notes I agree with and others I don’t. In this case though, I disagree with quite a few individual assertions but found myself overall saying yes. That’s pretty much it. That’s a not terribly clear reaction. But I found it worth sharing with you.

There is a story told about Franklin Roosevelt, who spent most of the Wilson administration as an active Assistant Secretary of the Navy.  Decades later as President, he was hours into a meeting on military spending with his Army Chief of Staff, George Marshall, before Pearl Harbor, when the services’ needs were great and money was scarce.  Wearily, Gen. Marshall acknowledged the history, but asked Roosevelt, “Mr. President, could you at least stop referring to the Navy as ‘we’ and the Army as ‘they’?”

I have no difficulty thinking of Israelis generally and the Israeli government in particular as “they” rather than “we.”  Israel and the United States have some common interests, but not a common cause.  I admire Israelis’ accomplishments over the years, appreciate the dedication of many Israelis to maintaining their democracy in difficult circumstances, and value American commitments made repeatedly to Israel’s security — but recognize also that Israelis and Palestinians have more in common with one another than either of them have with us.

Israel’s war with the Palestinians is, of course, of paramount importance to the people who live in the region where it is taking place.  Most of them ascribe much wider significance to it:  relating it to the fate of Jewish people everywhere, the displacement of Palestinian Arabs 75 years ago, the worldwide story of imperialism and colonization or even events recorded in the Old Testament.  Either would be insulted at the idea that their war was no more important than the ongoing destruction of Sudan, the civil war in Myanmar, or even the largest land war in Europe since 1945 — just another sectarian tribal conflict in Southwest Asia, having much in common with those the American military tried to manage in Iraq and Afghanistan for so many years.

The Biden administration has done nothing to burst anyone’s bubble in this respect.  It has allowed the war in Gaza to become an enormous time suck for senior officials from the President on down for over half a year — as we approach an election campaign of vital importance to democracy in our own country.  For all the time and resources it has committed to the war, however, the administration has not been able to prevent the destruction of most of Gaza or bring the war any closer to ending.  The Israeli government that stumbled into disaster last October 7 is still there — not only that, but only by great skill and some dumb luck did the United States avoid being dragged by that government into yet another war, against Iran, last month.  Finally, like a dog with an old bone, the Biden administration is still pursuing the mirage of Saudi-Israeli normalization, which will not become reality unless America pays for it.

The Biden administration is committed to Israel, and particularly to its current government, for the sake of being committed to Israel.  That’s not good enough.  We need a policy objective of our own, not one handed to us by Netanyahu and very lightly amended.  We seemed so close to embarking on a policy direction with at least a little promise two months ago, when Sen. Schumer made his speech calling for new Israeli elections.  But Schumer lost his nerve and Biden never followed up — a crisis in relations with Netanyahu was averted.  This was no great achievement.

To get different choices made in Israel, the Israeli government needs different people running it.  Barring an act of God or a major rupture with the United States, it won’t get them, and the war will continue indefinitely.  Since we can’t count on a timely act of God, the Biden administration would best pursue the rupture, and lance this boil.  The war in Ukraine and the tense situation in the South China Sea are both of much more importance to the United States than the fighting in Gaza.  The preservation of American democracy is too.  Holding the hands of that ingrate in Jerusalem is taking time and effort the Biden administration cannot spare.

A Quick Survey of Numbers, Vibes and the Inner Lives of Campaigns

In yesterday’s podcast Kate and I discussed that NYT-Siena poll (way overplayed and exaggerated but still not great for Biden) and the debate story which was literally continuing to break and change while we recorded the pod. The two stories intersect in some interesting ways.

The Times said: “The early-debate gambit from Mr. Biden amounted to a public acknowledgment that he is trailing in his re-election bid, and a bet that an accelerated debate timeline will force voters to tune back into politics and confront the possibility of Mr. Trump returning to power.”

A public acknowledgement!

In recent days I’ve been in a running conversation with several Times staffers about Times coverage, some private, some on social media, trying to both keep it real and keep it calm. When I saw this line it struck me as part of that subtext of so much Times coverage, at least going back months and in many ways much longer, of “Joe, stop playing games and admit you’re behind. Admit you’re behind, Joe!”

It’s sort of part and parcel of the demand for an interview, which got all the play in that Politico piece. There’s a whole hidden world of private jousting behind a piece like this. The White House doesn’t want to do an interview with the Times but they’re doing them with Howard Stern and local news outlets. The Times folks would say, that’s not the same. Those places haven’t been covering all the big political stories constantly for years. They don’t know how to follow up on an incomplete answer like we do. And that’s true. That really is true. That’s why lots of presidents want to go for interviews with the non-elite press. Those reasons, and also the people they’re trying to reach — less-plugged-in voters, less-politically-tuned-in voters. It’s programs like Howard Stern where they might find these people. But there’s also a strong vibe, in the Times’ critique, of, “This isn’t for us, Joe. We’re The New York Times. You need to do this interview for America.”

I mean, TPM would love a Biden interview too. But that’s because we’d love to get that interview. It’s not for America.

Remember that Axios piece that said Biden was in denial about his poll numbers? The idea here is that because Biden isn’t shaking up his campaign or firing his campaign manager or switching his message he’s not only behind but sleep walking toward defeat. When I saw the whole debate thing flare up yesterday it struck me as a total power move by Biden. He dared Trump to debate him. Trump quickly agreed. In principle. Then Biden said, great let’s do this CNN one. Not only a power move but Biden got Trump to agree to what is almost universally seen as a less-than-Trump-friendly format — no Fox, no audience, just the two men and two legit journalists, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.

Those are hardly unfair debate terms. But they limit Trump’s obvious and routine avenues for funny business. Trump also pushed for a third debate on Fox. But Biden said a flat no.

And yet Trump was happy to say yes really fast even on terms that probably weren’t of his choosing. The best summary of this whole thing — and the best game-theory unwrapping of it since, well, it can’t be in both their interests to debate can it? — came from Jonathan Last in the Bulwark. (If you’re not familiar with it it’s essentially the new home of the Never-Trump survivors of the collapse of The Weekly Standard.)

He writes:

All in all, yesterday’s move […] sends a few encouraging signals about the Biden campaign:

  • They recognize the reality of their standing in the race.
  • They aren’t panicking and grasping for a “reset.” They have a theory of the campaign.
  • But they’re also nimble enough to look for tactical advantages that can be picked up on the fly.
  • They’re confident enough in Biden’s abilities that they’re letting him debate Trump twice.

There are a dozen things the Biden campaign could/should be doing better.² But that’s true of every campaign. Overall, yesterday’s announcement was encouraging.

This is quite good. It captures the balance, the heart of it. Yes, Biden’s a bit behind. But there is a poverty to what we might call “make some changes” discourse. It’s tough running behind in a campaign. It’s tough running just a bit behind (which is the accurate characterization of this race) when the stakes are so damn high. You also want your candidate to have a good theory of the campaign and be confident in that theory. We’ve seen plenty of campaigns hit a point where they just start throwing spaghetti against the wall, seeing what will stick. A “reboot,” a “reset,” a new campaign manager. The result is almost universally ugly as fuck. You ditch your strategy for a new one. But that one doesn’t work any better. How long do you hold on to a runner-up strategy when it’s not working any better than your first choice? Probably not long. Soon you’re on to your second reboot and your third strategy and everyone inside the campaign and out knows you’re in a death spiral. It’s pretty hard to get your voters and activists and campaign workers pumped when you’re sending the signal loud and clear not only that you think you’re losing but that you’ve decided you have no idea what to do to change the situation. Like I said, a death spiral.

Sometimes you’re 10 points back a month before Election Day and your theory of the campaign hasn’t worked so … really, what the fuck else are you going to do? This is why a lot of campaigns not only lose but lose ugly. Because they’re simply out of options. And if you’re definitely losing the non-risk of losing ugly is worth taking for the slight chance you’ll happen on something that works better.

Needless to say, being a point or at most two back six months before the election is not that situation. You absolutely don’t want your campaign doubting its theory of the election or its strategy, “making changes” as they say. Especially when it is a good theory of the election (which I take to be: use key issues to consolidate fractures in the D coalition and focus everyone on the binary choice between Biden and Trump). But you do want to remain on the offensive and be on the lookout for opportunities to create moments of volatility in which existing strategies can get traction. And like Last, I think this debate move is a good example of that. Stay on offense, always on offense. Maximize the time you’re acting rather than reacting.

Another Round of Heavy Rainfall and Severe Storms Impacting the Southern U.S Today

On Jewish revenge

What might a people, subjected to unspeakable historical suffering, think about the ethics of vengeance once in power?

- by Shachar Pinsker

Read at Aeon

Latest Inflation Figures Are Good News — Even if They Give a Lot of People Heartburn

The Conversation logo

U.S. Economy Slows, Inflation Eases: Fed Unlikely to Cut Rates Soon

The U.S. economy is slowing, but not crashing. In the dismal science, this is what counts as good news.

That’s the message I took away from the latest inflation data, released May 15, 2024, which showed U.S. consumer prices rising 3.4% in the 12 months to April 2024. This is down slightly from the 3.5% year-over-year increase reported in March 2024.

In other words, while prices are rising, they’re not going up as sharply as they once were. That’s good news for shoppers; the U.S. economy is far from the 9.1% annual inflation seen in June 2022.

While energy and shelter prices increased in April, these gains were relatively modest. Meanwhile, food prices remained steady compared to last year and even declined by 0.2% compared to March. What’s more, people in the market for a car were in luck: New and used vehicle prices fell 0.4% and 6.9%, respectively, in April.

The “core” consumer price index — which doesn’t include volatile food and energy prices and is often considered better at predicting future inflation than so-called “headline” CPI figures — is also down slightly. After posting a year-over-year increase of 3.9% in January and 3.8% in February and March, it slowed to 3.6% in April.

So the overall report is relatively positive: It didn’t show the uptick in inflation that many consumers feared, and reported inflation rates were actually slightly lower than market expectations.

As an economist, I see this data report as yet more evidence that economic growth is slowing — in a good way. The economy grew at a lower-than-expected 1.6% rate in the first quarter of 2024, according to the most recent gross domestic product data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The most recent jobs report also showed a slowdown in hiring, and the latest data on job vacancies similarly showed the labor market cooling off.

Why the Fed Is Paying Close Attention

The Federal Reserve’s main objective is to strike a balance between two goals: maintaining stable employment and ensuring price stability. It does this by managing and influencing interest rates.

Lowering rates stimulates the economy, which encourages economic growth and job creation – but that can fuel inflation. Raising rates does the opposite: Economic growth slows, which dampens inflation, but also hinders employment.

So, when inflation started increasing dramatically after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve responded with a two-year campaign of rate hikes – they’re currently at a 23-year high. Since this raises the cost of borrowing, investors and potential homebuyers are keen for the Fed to dial back its rates.

After May’s report, I don’t believe the Federal Reserve will be in any rush to cut interest rates from their current elevated level. There’s a slowdown, to be sure, but the slowdown is so steady that it’s not pulling prices down in any rapid fashion.

This is no doubt frustrating for the Fed — which has an inflation target of 2% — as well as for potential homebuyers. But it’s evidence that the economy is stable at the moment. Inflation isn’t surging, and consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is still growing. In March, consumer spending increased 5.8% year over year, up from February’s 4.9% rate.

All Eyes on the American Shopper

Going forward, hopes for a “soft landing” — economist-speak for when the Fed slows inflation without triggering a recession — will depend in large measure on U.S. shoppers. Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product.

If American shoppers suddenly stop spending, then inflation will slow considerably, job vacancies will evaporate, and gross domestic product could contract. At that point, the Fed will turn attention away from inflation and toward economic stimulus, and rates will fall.

I mention this because a recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showed a troubling uptick in consumer credit card delinquency rates. If much of the recent increase in consumer spending is due to Americans relying more on credit cards, then the economy could be on shakier ground than it appears.

The good news is that delinquency rates are still way below where they were ahead of the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 through June 2009. So, while this data may be troubling, there’s no need to panic just yet.

In short, while inflation rates still aren’t to the Fed’s liking, the economy – for now – appears to be on a stable path.The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


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The post Latest Inflation Figures Are Good News — Even if They Give a Lot of People Heartburn appeared first on DCReport.org.

Zero-Trust DNS

Microsoft is working on a promising-looking protocol to lock down DNS.

ZTDNS aims to solve this decades-old problem by integrating the Windows DNS engine with the Windows Filtering Platform—the core component of the Windows Firewall—directly into client devices.

Jake Williams, VP of research and development at consultancy Hunter Strategy, said the union of these previously disparate engines would allow updates to be made to the Windows firewall on a per-domain name basis. The result, he said, is a mechanism that allows organizations to, in essence, tell clients “only use our DNS server, that uses TLS, and will only resolve certain domains.” Microsoft calls this DNS server or servers the “protective DNS server.”

By default, the firewall will deny resolutions to all domains except those enumerated in allow lists. A separate allow list will contain IP address subnets that clients need to run authorized software. Key to making this work at scale inside an organization with rapidly changing needs. Networking security expert Royce Williams (no relation to Jake Williams) called this a “sort of a bidirectional API for the firewall layer, so you can both trigger firewall actions (by input *to* the firewall), and trigger external actions based on firewall state (output *from* the firewall). So instead of having to reinvent the firewall wheel if you are an AV vendor or whatever, you just hook into WFP.”

Substitutes are everywhere

  • The typical plasma donor was younger than 35, did not hold a bachelor’s degree, earned a lower income and had a lower credit score than most Americans. Donors sold plasma primarily to earn income to cover day-to-day expenses or emergencies.
  • When a plasma center opened in a community, there were fewer inquiries to installment or payday lenders. Inquires fell most among young (age 35 or younger) would-be borrowers.
  • Four years after a plasma center opened, young people in the area were 13.1% and 15.7% less likely to apply for a payday and installment loan, respectively.
  • Similarly, the probability of having a payday loan declined by 18% among young would-be borrowers in the community. That’s an effect on payday loan borrowing roughly equivalent to a $1 increase in the state minimum hourly wage.

Here is the St. Louis Fed study, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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The willingness to pay for IVF

WHO estimates that as many as 1 in 6 individuals of reproductive age worldwide are affected by infertility. This paper uses rich administrative population-wide data from Sweden to construct and characterize the universe of infertility treatments, and to then quantify the private costs of infertility, the willingness to pay for infertility treatments, as well as the role of insurance coverage in alleviating infertility. Persistent infertility causes a long-run deterioration of mental health and couple stability, with no long-run “protective” effects (of having no child) on earnings. Despite the high private non-pecuniary cost of infertility, we estimate a relatively low revealed private willingness to pay for infertility treatment. The rate of IVF initiations drops by half when treatment is not covered by health insurance. The response to insurance is substantially more pronounced at lower income levels. At the median of the disposable income distribution, our estimates imply a willingness to pay of at most 22% of annual income for initiating an IVF treatment (or about a 30% chance of having a child). At least 40% of the response to insurance coverage can be explained by a liquidity effect rather than traditional moral hazard, implying that insurance provides an important consumption smoothing benefit in this context. We show that insurance coverage of infertility treatments determines both the total number of additional children and their allocation across the socioeconomic spectrum.

That is from a recent NBER working paper by Sarah Bögl, Jasmin Moshfegh, Petra Persson, and Maria Polyakova.

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📙 #035 - IDEAS, IDEAS, IDEAS

# LIFE

This week is a mess, and there are a few more like it coming up.

Wednesday, just gone, was a check-up trip to the hospital. Today, Thursday, I'm driving my youngest to Coventry to take their first GCSE Math exam. We homeschooled a lot, so the exams have to be taken in approved exam centres, in this case, one that's 110km away, for a 9am exam, a journey Google estimates to take 2 hours.

The first of four 9am exams spread over the next few weeks.

Friday, Nixie, my wife, is booked in for some wisdom teeth stuff, which involves sedatives and being absolutely banned from operating heavy machinery. So it's my job to enforce that and also make tea ☕️🚫🚜

I'm writing this on Tuesday and trying to get all my tenses right; editing the #Weeknotes video is going to be a shit show. Also, I start jury service in a couple of weeks.

So yeah, "fun" all around!


# Handwriting font

I'm still working through the code to do full joined-up handwriting, so I'm not there yet. But while doing some work for the possible zine, I wanted to play with some text and test whether my handwriting API was working, so I took this design from last year.

This is basically a subdivision algorithm that discards some divisions and fills the rest with lines, sometimes skewing and offsetting them.

I took that and told the code to use the handwriting API to fill those subdivisions with writing instead of lines. The text is some Lorem Ipsum that gets created on demand, which I often use for testing.

One thing I've enjoyed doing is keeping a sketchbook of plots. When I update my code, and when I remember, I plot a new page. I've seen a few other people fill books with plots, and I like the format. I may start doing this more often: a general sketchbook and then a smaller one for each project to track progress. I just have to get over it when some pages inevitably screw up.


Thank you for reading The Dan Catt Pen Plotting Newsletter. This post is public so feel free to share it.

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# IDEAS

Long-term readers, and anyone who follows me on Twitter/X, know I use an AI called Kitty. Kitty is actually a combination of automation and AI.

An example is Kitty watching a Share folder on my desktop. When new images are found in the folder, Kitty will resize and crop them for social media, use OpenAI's API to identify the contents of the image, combine that with the text in the filename, and again use the OpenAI API to generate six potential tweets, which are presented as options. Upon picking one, Kitty then uses the Twitter API to post the tweet and image.

The combination of access to the local file system for automation and AI is particularly useful.

Anyway, one of the main things I use it for is tracking what I do. Kitty asks me questions in the morning, evening, and throughout the day. My responses to those questions are used to generate tweets and such; it looks a bit like this.

...one thing I've been doing, partly for my Arts-Based Research and somewhat for fun, is each Sunday evening, once I answer the last set of questions, letting Kitty take a whole weeks' worth of what I've been doing and generating ideas based on that. The central part of the prompt is this...

"I want you to go through the questions and answers and see if you can pick out any common ideas and concepts. Then merge and blend those ideas to come up with new ideas for what we could do in the studio based on your other knowledge. For some ideas see if you can think of different directions they could be taken in, we're looking for six to eight fairly fleshed out new ideas. Throw in a totally new idea if you feel like it. Please return the ideas in Markdown format."

Because I'm supposed to be documenting my Arts-Based Research, I figured I'd stick all these ideas onto my website; you can find an index of them for 2024 so far over here: https://revdancatt.com/kitty/ideas/ and the most recent ones are here: https://revdancatt.com/kitty/ideas/19 - 2024-05-06-2024-05-12-ideas

I'm not saying they're good, but I guess that depends on your attitude.

The recurring things Kitty keeps suggesting are...

  • Virtual studio tour and virtual open studio

  • Generative art stationery

  • AR/VR

  • Studio Organisation

  • Creativity and health

While not suggesting the above, Kitty suggests I run workshops about those topics instead.

🤷‍♂️

The first time I wrote about this "reflection" part of journalling with AI, the token length of OpenAI's API allowed me to send just one week's worth of Q&As. They'd upped that limit the second time I wrote about it, meaning I could send a month's Q&As. I have yet to try it, but the latest update means I should be able to send six months' worth and maybe even a year's worth of Q&As in one go.

Over the last year, I've answered five questions each morning (three dynamically changing based on the previous few days): two always the same: "What's your plan for today?" and "Anything else you want to mention?" a bunch of "What are you working on at the moment?" questions during the day, and three (dynamic) wrap-up questions at the end.

So I think it's fascinating and exciting that we have the potential to throw all of those at the AI and then ask it questions about, well, stuff.

I feel I probably need to (yearly) take a good, clean 360-degree video of my head and record my voice so future me will be able to ask younger AI versions of me what I did each year.

Example ideas from a couple of weeks ago


# Plotting Tutorials Update

I've finally written all the (draft) versions of the scripts for the first module of the pen plotting tutorials, which consists of 11 videos in total.

  • 1.1.0 Introduction

  • 1.1.1 Types of pen plotter artists

  • 1.2.0 Intro to the Drawing Machine

  • 1.2.1 How to talk to the drawing machine

  • 1.3.0 Pens and paper

  • 1.3.1 Anatomy of a piece of paper

  • 1.4.0 What is an SVG file

  • 1.4.1 Writing a calibration file

  • 1.4.2 Writing an SVG file by hand + dice

  • 1.4.3 Writing an SVG file with AI, badly

  • 1.5.0 A note about hidden line removal, handwriting, optimisation & fills

I also want to get the first video of the second module, "2.0.0 A note about code vs scripts vs functions for artists," in the bag.

Now, I need to do a second pass and create all the support material. Even if I managed to shoot and edit a video a day, that's still two weeks' worth of work ahead of me.

I'm doing it this way 'cause I want to be able to drop all the videos for the first module in one go as they all work together, and it would totally suck to have them released one a week for nearly three months. It's also everything (hopefully) someone who already knows how to code needs to get started with drawing machines.

Once that's all done, we'll move to a more management format of writing, shooting and editing the videos one at a time and releasing each one as it's done for the whole teaching artists how to code for the drawing machine part.


# THE END

It's just gone Tuesday lunchtime, and I'm going to grab something to eat. Then, I'll dive into making sure Monday's and this morning's #Weeknotes videos are done and dropped into the timeline to make things easier on Friday.

In selling-the-old-studio news, four weeks ago, I wrote...

"But I was also hoping to have finished selling the studio before then too, which is now looking to happen the week or two after run-out-of-money-day 💸"

Reader, the studio still hasn't exchanged and completed, and I haven't totally been able to find out why, my solicitor is on holiday until tomorrow/yesterday (the 15th), and all of this was supposed to originally happen at the start of March anyway. Putting us firmly into two weeks past run-out-of-money-day.

So if you (or someone you know, for that sweet sweet network effect) happens to have a graphQL/nodejs/AI/museum/generative/video/cultural-org shaped project, hit me up, as apparently, my availability has suddenly widened, right, the, fuck, up.

Right, time to go!

I love you all,
Dan
❤️

P.S. You'll receive my next newsletter around May 28th.


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Movies Watched, April 2024

Still from “Civil War,” directed by Alex Garland Like a lot of people, once I saw the trailer for Alex Garland’s “Civil War,” a dystopian thriller set in…

What is the new Dutch coalition government up to?

Here is one very good thread, here is more.  Whatever you make think of these personally, my prediction is they will prove very popular with most European electorates, with local details varying of course.

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Thursday 16 May 1661

Up early to see whether the work of my house be quite done, and I found it to my mind. Staid at home all the morning, and about 2 o’clock went in my velvet coat by water to the Savoy, and there, having staid a good while, I was called into the Lords, and there, quite contrary to my expectations, they did treat me very civilly, telling me that what they had done was out of zeal to the King’s service, and that they would joyne with the governors of the chest with all their hearts, since they knew that there was any, which they did not before. I give them very respectful answer and so went away to the Theatre, and there saw the latter end of “The Mayd’s Tragedy,” which I never saw before, and methinks it is too sad and melancholy.

Thence homewards, and meeting Mr. Creed I took him by water to the Wardrobe with me, and there we found my Lord newly gone away with the Duke of Ormond and some others, whom he had had to the collation; and so we, with the rest of the servants in the hall, sat down and eat of the best cold meats that ever I eat on in all my life.

From thence I went home (Mr. Moore with me to the waterside, telling me how kindly he is used by my Lord and my Lady since his coming hither as a servant), and to bed.

Read the annotations

Government revenue and AT&T direct-to-smartphone agreement lift AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile’s shares closed up more than 68% after announcing a revenue-sharing deal with AT&T, which plans to use its proposed direct-to-device satellites to keep smartphones connected in cellular dead zones.

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Inversion Space targets military market with ‘warehouses in space’

The startup is developing a reusable capsule to store supplies in orbit and deliver them anywhere on Earth on demand

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Lithuania 40th nation to sign Artemis Accords

Lithuania Artemis Accords
Lithuania Artemis Accords

Lithuania has become the 40th nation to sign the Artemis Accords outlining best practices for responsible space exploration.

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SatVu aims to revive thermal imaging business in 2025 with two satellites

SatVu has booked launches for its second and third spacecraft to put the British thermal imaging constellation back on track after its debut satellite failed six months after launch.

The post SatVu aims to revive thermal imaging business in 2025 with two satellites appeared first on SpaceNews.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 35.0% YoY; Most Home For Sale Since August 2020

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.4% YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.0% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 11, 2024
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 35.0% above year-ago levels.

For the 27th straight week, there were more homes listed for sale versus the prior year, giving homebuyers more options. In fact, last week saw the highest number of homes for sale since August 2020, a significant milestone. Though new listing activity has softened, the recent strength in listing activity means buyers are seeing more homes for sale than they have in almost 4 years. Though buyers are seeing more options at a national level, inventory abundance varies geographically. The South leads the way in inventory growth, with a 43.0% increase in inventory annually in April, while the Northeast saw inventory increase just 4.0%.

New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 6.6% from one year ago.

Seller activity continued to climb annually last week and accelerated relative to the previous week’s growth. However, the annual increase in new listings was lower than almost every week back to early February, signifying a slowdown in new listings growth. .
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 27th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically very low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels although up year-over-year.

Exploring the Endless Possibilities of 3D Printing

3D printing has revolutionized the way we create and innovate. With this cutting-edge technology, you can bring your ideas to life, producing tangible items from digital designs with remarkable precision. But what can I make with a 3D printer? Here, we delve into the myriad of possibilities that 3D printing offers, ensuring you have plenty of inspiration for your next exciting project.

1. Prototypes and Models

One of the most popular and practical uses of 3D printers is creating prototypes. Whether you’re an engineer, designer, or hobbyist, fully-automated professional 3D printer allow you to quickly produce models to test form, fit, and function. From intricate mechanical parts to detailed architectural models, the ability to produce precise prototypes is invaluable.This rapid prototyping process can significantly speed up the development cycle, allowing for more iterations and improvements before final production. Additionally, 3D printing enables the creation of highly complex and customized designs that would be difficult or impossible to achieve with traditional manufacturing methods.

2. Customized Household Items

What can you make with a 3D printer for everyday use? The options are virtually endless. You can create custom kitchen utensils tailored to your cooking habits, unique planters that fit perfectly in your space, or personalized storage solutions that maximize your organization. The beauty of 3D printing lies in its ability to tailor objects to your exact specifications, making your home truly one-of-a-kind. Imagine designing your own phone stands, coasters, or even furniture accents that match your personal style. Moreover, 3D printing allows you to experiment with different materials and finishes, giving you the freedom to create items that are both functional and aesthetically pleasing.

3. Educational Tools

Teachers and students alike benefit immensely from 3D printing technology. Educational aids such as geometric shapes, historical artifacts, and anatomical models can be produced to enhance learning experiences across various subjects. These hands-on tools make abstract concepts more tangible and easier to grasp, fostering a deeper understanding and engagement. For instance, students can study the solar system with 3D printed planets or explore the human body with detailed organ models. Additionally, 3D printing can be integrated into the curriculum, teaching students valuable skills in design, engineering, and technology.

4. Art and Jewelry

For artists and jewelry designers, 3D printing opens up entirely new creative horizons. Intricate designs that are difficult or impossible to create by hand can be printed with ease and precision. From elaborate sculptures to delicate earrings, the artistic possibilities are limitless. You can experiment with complex geometries, new materials, and innovative structures that push the boundaries of traditional craftsmanship. This technology enables creators to bring their most ambitious visions to life. Furthermore, 3D printing allows for the customization of jewelry pieces, making it possible to create personalized and unique designs for clients. When considering what can you make with 3D printer, the potential extends beyond jewelry and art, encompassing a wide range of applications in various fields.

5. Replacement Parts

One highly practical application of 3D printing is producing replacement parts for various devices and appliances. Instead of buying a whole new product when a small part breaks, you can print the specific component you need, saving time, money, and reducing waste. This is especially useful for out-of-production or hard-to-find components. Whether it’s a broken clip on your vacuum cleaner or a missing piece from a favorite board game, 3D printing provides a quick and efficient solution. Additionally, having the ability to print your own replacement parts empowers you to maintain and repair items independently, extending their lifespan.

6. Toys and Games

What to make with a 3D printer if you have children or enjoy gaming? The possibilities are vast and exciting. Custom toys, board game pieces, and even action figures can be created, offering endless fun and learning opportunities. This not only provides entertainment but also the chance to teach kids about design, creativity, and technology. Imagine printing a custom chess set with personalized pieces or designing an original puzzle that challenges your skills. Moreover, 3D printing allows you to create educational toys that promote learning through play, fostering creativity and problem-solving abilities in children.

7. Medical Devices

The medical field has enthusiastically embraced 3D printing for creating custom prosthetics, dental implants, and even anatomical models for surgical planning. Among the many things you can make with a 3D printer, this technology allows for highly personalized medical solutions, improving patient outcomes and quality of life. For example, prosthetics can be tailored to perfectly fit an individual’s anatomy, enhancing comfort and functionality. Surgeons can also practice on precise models of patients’ organs before performing complex surgeries, increasing success rates. Additionally, 3D printing facilitates the production of customized medical devices and implants, ensuring better compatibility and effectiveness.

8. Fashion and Accessories

Fashion designers use 3D printers to create avant-garde clothing and accessories, breaking new ground in the industry. From unique footwear that blends style and ergonomics to stylish handbags that feature intricate patterns, 3D printing allows designers to push the boundaries of traditional fashion. This technology enables the creation of pieces that are both functional and artistic, challenging conventional manufacturing processes and inspiring new trends. Furthermore, 3D printing allows for the production of made-to-measure garments and accessories, offering a level of customization and fit that is difficult to achieve with traditional methods.

9. Food Printing

Believe it or not, 3D printers can also be used to create food. Edible prints made from chocolate, sugar, and other food materials are becoming more common, offering innovative culinary possibilities. Imagine printing intricate cake decorations, custom-shaped pasta, or even personalized candies. This technology opens up new avenues for chefs and food enthusiasts to experiment with textures, flavors, and presentations, transforming the way we experience food. Additionally, 3D food printing can be used to create specialized diets, offering precise control over nutritional content and portion sizes.

10. DIY Projects and Gadgets

For DIY enthusiasts and tinkerers, things you can make with a 3D printer are nearly endless. Custom tools, home improvement gadgets, and tech accessories can all be printed, allowing makers to experiment and create solutions tailored to their specific needs. Whether you’re designing a custom-fit tool for a particular job, creating a unique phone case, or developing your own gadgets, 3D printing empowers you to turn your ideas into reality with precision and creativity. Additionally, the ability to prototype and iterate quickly enables DIY enthusiasts to refine their designs and achieve professional-quality results.

Conclusion

The question isn’t just what can I make with a 3D printer, but rather what can’t you make? From practical household items and educational tools to artistic creations and medical devices, the possibilities are truly endless. As you explore the potential of 3D printing, you’ll discover its power to transform ideas into reality, fostering innovation and creativity in ways previously unimaginable. Embrace this technology and unlock a world of opportunities that await at your fingertips.


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Seven reasons America is headed for a more conservative decade

I still remember, twenty years ago, reading The Right Nation, by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge. Published after George W. Bush’s close victory in the presidential contest of 2004, the book argued that America is inherently a center-right society, oriented toward free enterprise and traditional Christian values, and that it would retain this essential character for the foreseeable future.

The book could hardly have been more mistimed. The year after it was published, Nancy Pelosi and the Dems retook the House; two years later, Barack Obama cruised to victory. The conservatism of George W. Bush turned out to be a last gasp rather than a new dawn; one by one, in the years following his ill-starred presidency, the pillars of his governing ideology collapsed. Gay marriage gained wide acceptance, and Christianity itself began to wane. Tax cuts and free trade went out of fashion, and financial deregulation was widely blamed for the crisis of 2008. Even Republicans turned against the Iraq War and the muscular interventionism of Reagan-era conservatism. The progressive policy responses to the Great Recession, and the progressive social movements of the 2010s, went on to reshape American society.

But there was a time when America really had been on a conservative track. If you went back to the mid-1970s, in the years following Richard Nixon’s resignation, and you declared that the country was headed for an increasingly conservative era, people might have laughed at you. But that’s exactly what happened.

If you want a complete narrative on how the reaction against the 1960s and the exhaustion of the 1970s fed into the conservative triumph of the 1980s, I heavily recommend Rick Perlstein’s series of books — Before the Storm (about Goldwater), Nixonland (about the 1960s and the fall of New Deal liberalism), The Invisible Bridge (about Watergate and confusion of the Ford years), and Reaganland (about the rise of Reaganite conservatism). Many of the throughlines are eerie parallels to the years since 2014 — protests and riots that started in Black communities and unleashed a storm of follow-on social movements, a dictatorially-minded President elected in a spasm of reaction, years of exhaustion and inflation.

The result of those years was the relatively conservative America I grew up in — the America of Reagan, Gingrich, and Bush, of deregulation and tax cuts, of the Christian Coalition and the pro-life movement, and so on. And although I don’t think the late 2020s or the 2030s are going to look quite like that, I do think we’re in for another period of conservatism on the march in America.

And I think this is true whether or not Trump wins the election later this year. I really hope Biden wins, but I predict that even if he does, the overall shift of American society will be to the right.

Here’s a list of seven reasons for that prediction.

1. The rightward drift of nonwhite voters

In the 2000s, the most powerful rebuttal to Micklethwait and Wooldridge was that they ignored America’s changing demographic composition. Some Democratic strategists argued that the massive influx of immigration — most of it Hispanic — would do for the U.S. exactly what it had seemingly done for California, and give the Democrats a permanent structural majority.

Obama’s victory in 2012 seemed to confirm that thesis, as Hispanic and Asian voters swung harder than ever toward the Dems. That prompted a ferocious backlash against immigration among Republicans (“Great Replacement” theory), and probably added to progressives’ sense that they could push farther than they otherwise would have dared.

But the pattern of American history is not on progressives’ side here. Previous immigrant groups — Italians, Irish, etc. — have usually started out voting strongly for the Democratic party, but shifted more Republican over time. Now it looks like that pattern may be repeating. Hispanic voters shifted a bit toward Trump in 2020. And John Burn-Murdoch and Nate Silver both have in-depth analyses of recent polling data showing a continued shift of Hispanic voters — and even some Black voters — toward the GOP. Here’s an eye-opening chart:

Source: Gallup via John Burn-Murdoch

Murdoch has many other pieces of data to back up the conclusion, and Silver has some poll aggregates that confirm the story.

Nor is this a case of Hispanic and Black leftists being angry at Biden over Israel. The nonwhite voters shifting toward the GOP almost all self-identify as conservatives:

And reporting from Axios, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and other news outlets tells the same story: Many Hispanic voters, and some Black voters as well, are mad at Democrats about the economy and about social issues, and are giving the Republicans a second look.

In other words, what we’re seeing looks like the long-awaited fulfillment of Ronald Reagan’s prophecy — that the children and grandchildren of nonwhite immigrants would follow the same pattern as their white predecessors, and shift toward a more politically divided stance. Demographics might have given progressivism a boost in the 2010s, but that boost is already beginning to fade.

2. Dissatisfaction with DEI

One of the most important victories of the progressive social movements of the 2010s was the rise of DEI. In almost all universities, in many corporations and schools, and in the U.S. civil service, there are now agencies or departments dedicated to “diversity, equity, and inclusion”, or DEI. The methods used by these DEI agencies vary widely, and can include anything from training seminars to soft racial quotas for hiring and promotion, to efforts to help racially diverse coworkers get along better at work, to monitoring employees and students for signs of racism, etc.

Read more

Links 5/16/24

Links for you. Science:

Flood of Fake Science Forces Multiple Journal Closures (gift link)
How men evolved to care for babies — before society got in the way
Scientists Need Your Help to Find Zombie-Infected Cicadas Filled With Gut Pudding
Orcas again sink yacht near Strait of Gibraltar as high-risk season looms
Alarmed by Climate Change, Astronomers Train Their Sights on Earth (gift link)
Return of the Slime Mold

Other:

17% of Voters Blame Biden for the End of Roe. The mistaken belief, in a new poll, shows how even as abortion is mobilizing Democrats, confusion over the issue is also a challenge. (professional Democrats suck at their jobs)
The Unpunished: How Extremists Took Over Israel (gift link)
When ‘Lol, No’ Is Not Enough: Lawyer Explains Why Bogus Takedown Over ‘Fuck The LAPD’ Shirt Should Result In Paying Legal Fees
“When My Daughter Tells Me I was Never Punk,” by Jessica Walsh
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Open source is neither a community nor a democracy

Using open source software does not entitle you to a vote on the direction of the project. The gift you've received is the software itself and the freedom of use granted by the license. That's it, and this ought to be straight forward, but I repeatedly see that it is not (no matter how often it is repeated). And I think the problem stems from the word "community", which implies a democratic decision-making process that never actually existed in the open source world.

First of all, community implies that we're all participating on some degree of equal footing in the work required to further the welfare of the group. But that's not how the majority of open source projects are run. They're usually run by a small group of core contributors who take on the responsibility to advance the project, review patches, and guard the integrity of the vision. The division of labor isn't even close to be egalitarian. It's almost always distinctly elitist.

That's good! Yes, elitism is good, when it comes to open source. You absolutely want projects to be driven by the people who show up to do the work, demonstrate their superior dedication and competence, and are thus responsible for keeping the gift factory churning out new updates, features, and releases. Productive effort is the correct moral basis of power in these projects. 

But this elitism is also the root of entitlement tension. What makes you think you're better than Me/Us/The Community in setting the direction for this project?? Wouldn't it be more fair, if we ran this on democratic consensus?? And it's hard to answer these question in a polite way that doesn't aggravate the tension or offend liberal sensibilities (in the broad historic sense of that word -- not present political alignments).

So we usually skirt around the truth. That not all participants in an open source project contribute equally in neither volume nor value, and this discrepancy is the basis of the hierarchical nature of most projects. It is not, and never will be, one user, one vote. That is, it will never be democratic. And this is good!

The democratic ideals are fulfilled by the fact that open source is free and full of alternatives. Don't like how they're running a given project? Use one of the usual countless alternatives. Or start your own! Here, you can even use the work of a million projects that came before you as a base for doing new work.

But the reason this doesn't resolve the tension is that it still relies on showing up and doing the work. And there just so happens to be far fewer individuals willing and capable of doing that than there are individuals who wish they had a say on the direction of their favorite software.

You can't solve that tension, only acknowledge it. I've dealt with it for literally twenty years with my work on Rails and a million other open source projects. There's an ever-latent instinct in a substantial subset of open source users who will continuously rear itself to question why it's the people who do the most work or deliver the most value or start the most projects that get to have the largest say.

And when people talk about open source burnout, it's often related to this entitlement syndrome. Although it's frequently misdiagnosed as a problem of compensation. As if begging for a few dollars would somehow make the entitlement problem bearable. I don't think it would. Programmers frequently turn to the joy of open source exactly because it exists outside the normal employment dynamics of quid-pro-quo. That's the relief.

I frequently argue that open source is best seen as a gift exchange, since that puts the emphasis on how to react as receiver of gifts. But if you're going to use another word as an alternative to community, I suggest you look at "ecosystem". Ecosystems aren't egalitarian. There are big fish and little fish. Sometimes the relationships are symbiotic, but they're also potentially parasitic.

But whatever word you choose, you'd do well to remember that open source is first and foremost a method of collaboration between programmers who show up to do the work. Not an entitlement program for petulant users to get free stuff or a seat at the table where decisions are made.

The New Zealand sheep-to-people ratio continues to fall

Here is the story, via the excellent Samir Varma.

The post The New Zealand sheep-to-people ratio continues to fall appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2024

A brief excerpt:
From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2024
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.94 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
MBA National Delinquency Survey Q1 2024The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased slightly in Q1. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.57 percent in Q1 2023 to 0.46 percent in Q1 2024 (red), even with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, and remains historically low.
...
The primary concern is the increase in 30- and 60-day delinquency rates, and even though the rate is historically low, it has increased from 2.32% in Q1 2023 to 2.92% in Q1 2024. I don’t think this increase is much of a worry, but it is something to watch.
There is much more in the article.

Thursday assorted links

1. The ink that Bach used (video).

2. The culture that is German finger-wrestling: “Participants are also prone to nosebleeds from the strain…”

3. A defense of potential European dynamism?

4. Actually using Sora to produce something.

5. What kinds of housing policy do voters want?

6. Lord Monboddo vindicated.

7. Katherine Boyle and Martin Casado on tech regulation (WSJ).

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The Aurora Seen from Space

NASA Earth Observatory (Wanmei Liang)/Suomi NPP—VIIRS

A view of the aurora borealis from space, captured by the VIIRS instrument aboard the Suomi NPP satellite at 3:20 am CDT on 11 May 2024. NASA Earth Observatory:

The VIIRS day-night band detects nighttime light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe signals such as city lights, reflected moonlight, and auroras.

In this view, the northern lights appear as a bright white strip across parts of Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan. But auroras are dynamic, and different coverage and patterns of light would have been visible at other times of the night. And while these satellite data are shown in grayscale, viewers on the ground saw colors from green (the most common) to purple to red. Atmospheric compounds found at different altitudes influence an aurora’s color.

It boggles the mind a bit that by imaging the aurorae from above, with city lights visible and states and lakes outlined, what we kind of have, above, is a map of the aurorae—at least at a single moment in time.

A Library of 17th-Century Map Elements, Useful for Fantasy and Game Maps

David Stark extracted elements from a 1688 map of part of Germany to create a library of tree, hill and town signs that he thought entirely appropriate for use as map assets for a role-playing game. I look at them and see fantasy map design elements. In 2019 I noted the similarities between 16th-century maps and modern fantasy map design. Also, digitally created fantasy maps often feature clone-stamped hill signs; you could do worse than clone-stamp these if you were whipping a fantasy map up. At least there’s more than one kind of hill sign to clone-stamp: there are, in fact, 159 hills and 26 mountains—more than 400 tiny images in all, and it’s interesting that David has separate categories for towns and cities, and for hills and mountains. [via]

Surprise Factory: Cohesion: Coupling’s B Side

What do you do when coupling is costing you dear but decoupling is impossible (or just too expensive)? Apply coupling’s flip side—cohesion.

Cohesion is a measure of how coupled the inside of an element is. And, this is the hard part, the more coupled the better.

Wait, I thought you just said that coupling was bad, that coupling magnified cost. How is more…

Read more

Daily Telescope: I spy, with my little eye, the ISS

The International Space Station as seen from 69 km away.

Enlarge / The International Space Station as seen from 69 km away. (credit: HEO on X)

Welcome to the Daily Telescope. There is a little too much darkness in this world and not enough light, a little too much pseudoscience and not enough science. We'll let other publications offer you a daily horoscope. At Ars Technica, we're going to take a different route, finding inspiration from very real images of a universe that is filled with stars and wonder.

Good morning. It's May 16, and today's image comes from an on-demand satellite imagery company named HEO. Only this image is not of the Earth, but rather the International Space Station.

According to the company, which is headquartered in Australia, one of its cameras imaged the space station at a distance of 69.06 km away, over the Indian Ocean. HEO flies its sensors as hosted payloads on satellites in Earth orbit. However, HEO's focus is not on Earth; it's on other spacecraft in low-Earth orbit to assess their status and identify anomalous behavior.

Read 3 remaining paragraphs | Comments

Sen. Durbin Is Not Serious About Stopping the Fifth Circuit Federal Court

lucyfootball

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit is the most right-wing federal court in the U.S.–and many of the worst decisions that ultimately are used by the Republican-dominated Supreme Court to enact conservative policies originate there. If Democrats are serious about judicial reform, a key piece of the puzzle is appointing more non-batshitloonitarian judges to the Fifth Circuit. Unfortunately, the head of the Senate Judiciary Committee has other ideas (boldface mine):

Durbin (D-Ill.) said during a committee markup last week that he’d entertain conversations around restoring the blue slip — which home-state senators could use to effectively veto certain nominees — but only if it is bipartisan and agreed to before Election Day. Such a deal would be a high-stakes gamble for both sides, since neither would know who would benefit from the policy change or if future leaders would honor it.

“If there’s any members of the committee that want to start an active conversation along those lines, I’d be glad to join it,” Durbin said. “If we are going to do anything on blue slips on circuit court judges, I think there’s one premise: We should do it prospectively, not knowing the outcome of an election that may change the presidency or may not. That is a fair way to approach it.”

Republicans signaled they’re willing to have the discussion. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, the top Republican on the panel, said in a brief interview in the Capitol that he hopes “we can find a way forward to have a little bit of a check and balance on the committee.”

Until 2017, Judiciary Committee chairs didn’t move circuit court nominees unless both home-state senators signed off on the candidate. But then-Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) stopped honoring that precedent for circuit court nominees, accusing Democrats of using it as a makeshift filibuster.

After that, the Trump administration and Senate Republicans moved circuit court nominees over objections from Democrats. The Biden administration and Senate Democrats followed suit.

Restoring the blue slip would amount to a seismic shift in the White House’s and Senate’s ability to confirm judges and would restore a significant point of minority power. It would engender pushback from progressives, who have long bemoaned that Democrats should be doing away with all blue slips rather than restoring those already gone.

I get why Durbin wants to do this: he’s worried that Democrats won’t hold the Senate. But the problem is Republicans, under Grassley, have already demonstrated a willingness to ignore blue slips when they are inconvenient. There’s no reason to assume Lucy won’t pull the football away again.

Meanwhile, the only way to return the Fifth Circuit to a semblance of sanity would be to appoint more Democratic judges to that court. If blue slips are reinstated, there is no way that could happen, since the states in the Fifth Circuit all have two Republican senators (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas), and they would use the blue slip to block any Democratic appointees. As long as the Fifth Circuit is crazy, they will keep sending crap to the Supreme Court, and the reactionaries on the Court will use those decisions to enact conservative policies.

Industrial Production Unchanged in April

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent. The index for mining fell 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities rose 2.8 percent. At 102.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in April was 0.4 percentage point lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 78.4 percent in April, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Capacity UtilizationClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.4% is 1.2% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was at consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production was unchanged at 102.8. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was below consensus expectations.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.360 million Annual Rate in April

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,360,000. This is 5.7 percent above the revised March estimate of 1,287,000, but is 0.6 percent below the April 2023 rate of 1,368,000. Single‐family housing starts in April were at a rate of 1,031,000; this is 0.4 percent below the revised March figure of 1,035,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 322,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000. This is 3.0 percent below the revised March rate of 1,485,000 and is 2.0 percent below the April 2023 rate of 1,470,000. Single‐family authorizations in April were at a rate of 976,000; this is 0.8 percent below the revised March figure of 984,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 408,000 in April.
emphasis added
Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in April compared to March.   Multi-family starts were down 33.1% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) decreased slightly in April and were up 17.7% year-over-year.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in April were above expectations, however, starts in February and March were revised down.

I'll have more later …

Single Family Starts Up 18% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply YoY

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up 18% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply YoY

A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in April were above expectations, however, starts in February and March were revised down.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

Starts 2022 vs 2023Total starts were down 0.6% in April compared to April 2023.

The YoY decline was due to the sharp YoY decrease in multi-family starts.

Increasing the supply of transplantable organs, in the long term, and sooner.

 Here's an article on the website of The American Council on Science and Health, on technologies that might eventually replace the need for human organ transplants, and on policies to increase their supply while still needed.

We Urgently Need More Organs For Transplantation. Science And Policy Can Come To The Rescue. By Henry I. Miller, MS, MD and Sally Satel, MD

"Both scientific and policy advancements could provide desperately needed organs for transplantation. For example, there have been some promising early studies using kidneys from pigs genetically engineered to prevent rejection, but a policy change – paying human donors for donating organs – could be implemented immediately and would be a game changer.

...

"[A] sector of medicine that desperately needs breakthroughs is the transplantation of solid organs, which are in severely short supply. Currently, more than 100,000 Americans are waiting for transplants, and due to a shortage of hearts, lungs, livers, and kidneys, at least 17 die each day. Donor organs — from a living person or cadaver — must match the rejection recipient’s tissue type and size; they are often not perfect. By one estimate, approximately half of transplanted organs are rejected by recipients’ bodies within 10-12 years, despite a constantly expanding understanding of what causes rejection. Another obstacle is that the organ procurement system in the U.S. is inefficient, inconsistent, and unaccountable – in short, a mess that causes preventable deaths.

"We are making progress, but too slowly. Two new high-tech approaches to providing organs for transplantation might ultimately both eliminate the need for organ donors and reduce the risk of tissue rejection. And there is also a low-tech approach that would require only a tweak in healthcare policy.

"Organs produced by 3D bioprinting"

...

"Organs from genetically modified pigs"


...

"The low-tech policy approach

"Although friends and relatives and even the occasional “good Samaritan” donor can donate kidneys, they must be given without compensation. Under section 301(a) of the National Organ Transplant Act of 1984 (NOTA), it is a federal crime for “any person to knowingly acquire, receive, or otherwise transfer any human organ for valuable consideration for use in human transplantation if the transfer affects interstate commerce.”  Therefore, we propose a federal tax credit for living donors willing to save the life of a stranger. The value of the reward should be between $50,000 and $100,000, which physicians and others who endorse donor compensation believe would be sufficient to address the organ shortage. An economic analysis published in 2022 estimated that a reward of $77,000 could encourage sufficient donations to save 47,000 patients annually.

"The credit would be universally available—refundable in cash for people who do not owe income tax, not phased out at high-income levels, and available under the alternative minimum tax. NOTA’s restriction on payments by organ recipients and other private individuals and organizations would not change—it would still be illegal for recipients to buy organs.

"A qualified organ donation would be subject to stringent safeguards. As all donors are now, prospective compensated donors would be carefully screened for physical and emotional health. A minimum six-month waiting period before the donation would filter out impulsive donors and donations by financially desperate individuals seeking instant cash.

"In addition to saving lives, the credit would save the government money, perhaps as much as $14 billion per year, by reducing expenditures on dialysis. Thus, donors would receive financial compensation from the government for contributing to the public good and bearing the risk of a surgical operation to remove the organ.

"This would be a compassionate and pragmatic policy. Moreover, it could be implemented immediately, rapidly clearing much of the backlog of Americans waiting for organs in advance of the longer-term high-tech approaches.

"The organ shortage kills thousands of Americans every year. We must do all we can to alleviate it now."


HT: Frank McCormick

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 222,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending May 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 215,000 to 215,250.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 217,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.

Instagram Cofounder Mike Krieger Joins Anthropic as Chief Product Officer

Mike Krieger:

Anthropic’s research continues to be at the forefront of AI. When paired with thoughtful product development, I [see] tons of potential to positively impact how people and companies get their work done. And as a two time entrepreneur, I’m particularly excited by how Claude, along with the right scaffolding and product features, can empower more people to innovate at a faster pace and at a lower cost.

Tangentially related: Anthropic shipped a native iOS Claude app two weeks ago.

 ★ 

★ Follow-Up on Apple No Longer Including Stickers With New Products

I got some pushback from readers for saying “Boo hiss” to the news that starting with this week’s new iPads, Apple is no longer including logo stickers in the boxes, and more or less rolling my eyes at the environmental concerns.

My thinking was that with all the other “paperwork” included in the box — warranty info, safety info, Quick Start guides — why not include one extra sheet that’s just for fun? One argument against the stickers is even just one extra sheet adds up. If those stickers are 0.1mm thick, a stack of 1 billion of them would be 100km high. But that’s still just one sheet amongst many others that Apple includes in every box.

The better argument against the stickers is that they’re plastic. All the other in-box paperwork is actual paper, and the packaging itself — including the interior structure — is all cardboard. And paper and cardboard are entirely recyclable. Apple has eliminated almost all plastic from its packaging over the years, including the clear shrink-wrap. So consider my mind changed: eliminating the stickers from the box, but making them available to those who want them at Apple retail stores, is a good compromise.

I conducted the same poll on Twitter/X, Mastodon, and Threads: “Thoughts on Apple no longer including stickers with new devices to reduce waste?”, with two options: 👍 or 👎. The results:

Votes👍👎
Twitter/X3,61263%38%
Mastodon3,42573%27%
Threads2,71171%29%
Total9,74869%31%

As a meta note, I continue to find the relative popularity of the three platforms amongst my followers interesting. Also interesting that Twitter/X respondents were a bit less in favor of the change. And lastly, if you’re interested, all three posts on social media have a slew of replies.

Save the Date: The Talk Show Live From WWDC 2024

Location: The California Theatre, San Jose
Showtime: Tuesday, 11 June 2024, 7:00 pm PT
Tickets: On sale soon
Special Guest(s): Working on it...
Previous Shows: On YouTube

 ★ 

A Conversation on AI with my Son

Son: Dad, you should text us more.

Alex: Ok, but why is that?

Son: Well, we are working on the Dad LLM but so far it just spits out economics and twitter quips. We need some sage Dad advice to help us out in the future.

Alex: So you want training data for my replacement?

Son: Well, at least until they unfreeze your brain.

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Birches

null

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SSD death, tricky read-only filesystems, and systemd magic?

Oh, yesterday was a barrel of laughs. I've said a lot that I hate hardware, and it's pretty clear that hardware hates me right back.

I have this old 2012-ish Mac Mini which has long since stopped getting OS updates from Apple. It's been through a lot. I upgraded the memory on it at some point, and maybe four years ago I bought one of those "HDD to SSD" kits from one of the usual Mac rejuvenation places. Both of those moves gave it a lot of life, but it's nothing compared to the flexibility I got by moving to Debian.

Then a couple of weeks ago, the SSD decided to start going stupid on me. This manifested as smartd logging some complaint and then also barking about not having any way to send mail. What can I say - it's 2024 and I don't run SMTP stuff any more. It looked like this:

Apr 29 07:52:23 mini smartd[1140]: Device: /dev/sda [SAT], 1 Currently unreadable (pending) sectors
Apr 29 07:52:23 mini smartd[1140]: Sending warning via /usr/share/smartmontools/smartd-runner to root ...
Apr 29 07:52:23 mini smartd[1140]: Warning via /usr/share/smartmontools/smartd-runner to root produced unexpected output (183 bytes) to STDOUT/STDERR:
Apr 29 07:52:23 mini smartd[1140]: /etc/smartmontools/run.d/10mail:
Apr 29 07:52:23 mini smartd[1140]: Your system does not have /usr/bin/mail.  Install the mailx or mailutils package

Based on the "(pending)" thing, I figured maybe it would eventually reallocate itself and go back to a normal and quiet happy place. I ran some backups and then took a few days to visit family. When I got back, it was still happening, so I went to the store and picked up a new SSD, knowing full well that replacing it was going to suck.

Thus began the multi-hour process of migrating the data from the failing drive to the new one across a temporary USB-SATA rig that was super slow. Even though I was using tar (and not dd, thank you very much), it still managed to tickle the wrong parts of the old drive, and it eventually freaked out. ext4 dutifully failed into read-only mode, and the copy continued.

I was actually okay with this because it meant I didn't have to go to any lengths to freeze everything on the box. Now nothing would change during the copy, so that's great! Only, well, it exposed a neat little problem: Debian's smartmontools can't send a notification if it's pointed at a disk that just made the filesystem fail into read-only mode.

Yes, really, check this out.

May 14 20:04:47 mini smartd[1993]: Sending warning via /usr/share/smartmontools/smartd-runner to root ...
May 14 20:04:47 mini smartd[1993]: Warning via /usr/share/smartmontools/smartd-runner to root produced unexpected output (92 bytes) to STDOUT/STDERR:
May 14 20:04:47 mini smartd[1993]: mktemp: failed to create file via template ‘/tmp/tmp.XXXXXXXXXX’: Read-only file system
May 14 20:04:47 mini smartd[1993]: Warning via /usr/share/smartmontools/smartd-runner to root: failed (32-bit/8-bit exit status: 256/1)

There it is last night attempting to warn me that things are still bad (and in fact have gotten worse) ... and failing miserably. What's going on here? It comes from what they have in that smartd-runner script. Clearly, they meant well, but it has some issues in certain corner cases.

This is the entirety of that script:

#!/bin/bash -e

tmp=$(mktemp)
cat >$tmp

run-parts --report --lsbsysinit --arg=$tmp --arg="$1" \
    --arg="$2" --arg="$3" -- /etc/smartmontools/run.d

rm -f $tmp

Notice run-parts. It's an interesting little tool which lets you run a bunch of things that don't have to know about each other. This lets you drop stuff into the /etc/smartmontools/run.d directory and get notifications without having to modify anything else. When you have a bunch of potential sources for customizations, a ".d" directory can be rather helpful.

But, there's a catch: smartd (well, smartd_warning.sh) fires off this giant multi-line message to stdout when it invokes that handler. The handler obviously can't consume stdin more than once, so it first socks it away in a temporary file and then hands that off to the individual notifier items in the run.d path. That way, they all get a fresh copy of it.

Unfortunately, mktemp requires opening a file for writing, and it tends to use a real disk-based filesystem (i.e., whatever's behind /tmp) to do its thing. It *could* be repointed somewhere else with either -p or TMPDIR in the environment (/dev/shm? /run/something?), but it's not.

This is another one of those "oh yeah" or "hidden gotcha" type things. Sometimes, the unhappy path on a system is *really* toxic. Things you take for granted (like writing a file) won't work. If you're supposed to operate in that situation and still succeed, it might take some extra work.

As for the machine, it's fine now. And hey, now I have yet another device I can plug in any time I want to make smartd start doing stuff. That's useful, right?

...

One random side note: you might be wondering how I have messages from the systemd journal about it not being able to write to the disk. I was storing this stuff to another system as it happened, and it's in my notes, but I just pulled this back out of journalctl right now, and it hit me while writing this. Now I'm wondering how I have them, too!

Honestly, I have no idea how this happened. Clearly, I have some learning to do here. How do you have a read-only filesystem that still manages to accept appends to the systemd journal? Where the hell does that thing live?

The box has /, /boot, /boot/efi, and swap. / (dm-1) went readonly. The journals are in /var/log/journal, which is just part of /.

If a tree falls in a forest and nobody's around...

...

Late update: yeah, okay, I missed something here. I'm obviously looking at the new SSD on the machine now, right? That SSD got a copy of whatever was readable from the old one, which turned out to be the entire system... *including* the systemd journal files.

Those changes weren't managing to get flushed to the old disk with the now-RO filesystem, but they were apparently hanging out in buffers and were available for reading... or something? That makes sense, right?

So, any time I copied something from the failing drive, I was scooping up whatever it could read from that filesystem. The telling part is that while these journals do cover the several hours it took to copy all of the stuff through that USB 2->SATA connection, they don't include the system shutdown. Clearly, that happened *after* the last copy ran. Obviously.

Now, if those journal entries had made it onto the original disk, then it would mean that I have a big hole in my understanding of what "read-only filesystem" means even after years of doing this. That'd be weird, right?

Just to be really sure before sending off this update, I broke out the failing SSD and hooked it up to that adapter again, then went through the incantations to mount it, and sure enough:

-rw-r-----+ 1 root systemd-timesync 16777216 May 14 17:06 system.journal

The last entry in that log is this:

May 14 17:06:38 mini kernel: ata1: EH complete

There we go. Not so spooky after all.

Political Language in Economics

LLMs are going to reveal many of the world’s secrets:

Does academic writing in economics reflect the political orientation of economists? We use machine learning to measure partisanship in academic economics articles. We predict observed political behavior of a subset of economists using the phrases from their academic articles, show good out-of-sample predictive accuracy, and then predict partisanship for all economists. We then use these predictions to examine patterns of political language in economics. We estimate journal-specific effects on predicted ideology, controlling for author and year fixed effects, that accord with existing survey-based measures. We show considerable sorting of economists into fields of research by predicted partisanship. We also show that partisanship is detectable even within fields, even across those estimating the same theoretical parameter. Using policy-relevant parameters collected from previous meta-analyses, we then show that imputed partisanship is correlated with estimated parameters, such that the implied policy prescription is consistent with partisan leaning. For example, we find that going from the most left-wing authored estimate of the taxable top income elasticity to the most right-wing authored estimate decreases the optimal tax rate from 84% to 58%.

Emphasis added by TC.  That is from a new paper by Zubin Jelveh, Bruce Kogut, and Suresh Naidu, recently published in Economic Journal.

Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Political Language in Economics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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My excellent Conversation with Benjamin Moser

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

Benjamin Moser is a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer celebrated for his in-depth studies of literary and cultural figures such as Susan Sontag and Clarice Lispector. His latest book, which details a twenty-year love affair with the Dutch masters, is one of Tyler’s favorite books on art criticism ever.

Benjamin joined Tyler to discuss why Vermeer was almost forgotten, how Rembrandt was so productive, what auctions of the old masters reveals about current approaches to painting, why Dutch art hangs best in houses, what makes the Kunstmuseum in the Hague so special, why Dutch students won’t read older books, Benjamin’s favorite Dutch movie, the tensions within Dutch social tolerance, the joys of living in Utrecht, why Latin Americans make for harder interview subjects, whether Brasilia works as a city, why modernism persisted in Brazil, how to appreciate Clarice Lispector, Susan Sontag’s (waning) influence, V.S. Naipaul’s mentorship, Houston’s intellectual culture, what he’s learning next, and more.

Excerpt:

COWEN: You once wrote about Susan Sontag, and I quote, “So much of Sontag’s best work concerns the ways we try, and fail, to see.” Please explain.

MOSER: This is what On Photography is about. This is what Against Interpretation is about in Sontag’s work. Of course, in my new book, The Upside-Down World, I talk about how I’m not really great at seeing, particularly. I’m not that visual. I’m a reader. I’m a bookworm. Often, when I’ve looked at paintings, I’ve realized how little I actually see. Sometimes I do feel embarrassed by it. You’ll read the label and it’ll be three sentences, and it’ll say like, A Man with a Dog. You’re like, “Oh, I didn’t even see the dog.” You know what I mean?

On these very basic levels, I just think, “Oh, if someone doesn’t point it out to me, I really don’t see.” I think that that was one of the fascinating things about Sontag, that she was not really able to see. She was actually quite terrible at seeing, and this was especially true in her relationships. She was very bad at seeing what other people were thinking and feeling.

I think because she was aware of that, she tried very hard to remedy it, but it’s just not something you can force. You can’t force yourself to like certain music or to like certain tastes that you might not actually like.

COWEN: What was Sontag most right about or most insightful about?

MOSER: I think this question of images — what images do — and photography and how representations, metaphors can pervert things. She had a very deep repulsion to photography. She really hated photography, and this is why a lot of photographers hated her because they felt this, even though she didn’t really say it. She really didn’t trust it. She really thought it was wicked. At the same time, for somebody who had a deficit, I guess you could say, in seeing, she really relied on it to understand the world.

I think that tension is very instructive for us, because now, she already says 50 years ago, “There are all these images. We don’t know what to do with them. We don’t know how to process them.” Forget AI, forget Russian trolls on Twitter. She uses this word I really like, hygiene, a lot. She talks about mental hygiene and how you can clean the rusty pipes in your brain. That’s why I think reading her helped me at least to understand a lot of what I’m seeing in the world.

COWEN: Do you think she will simply end up forgotten?

Again, I am happy to recommend Benjamin’s latest book The Upside-Down World: Meetings with Dutch Masters.

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Could Biden Stop Netanyahu’s Plans? A National Security Expert Looks at Israel’s Attack On Rafah

The Conversation logo

Israel entered Rafah, a city that marks Gaza’s southern border crossing with Egypt, on May 7, 2024, launching a military offensive that the U.S. and others have cautioned Israel not to pursue.

President Joe Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on May 6 against expanding the Gaza war into Rafah, indicating that this could lead to a shift in U.S. policy on Israel. A divergence over how to handle the war in Gaza prompted the U.S. to place a hold on shipping U.S.-made bombs to Israel.

Rafah is one of the only places in Gaza that has not been destroyed in the Gaza war. It is also a refuge for more than 1 million Palestinians, about half of whom are children, who have been displaced from their homes elsewhere in Gaza because of the conflict.

The Conversation U.S. politics and society editor Amy Lieberman spoke with Gregory Treverton, a chair of the National Intelligence Council under the Obama administration and a national security scholar at USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, to understand the limits of U.S. political leverage in influencing Israel’s seven-month war with Hamas.

Smoke following another Israeli air strike on Rafah on May 8. Credit: Anas-Mohammed

Is the U.S.s’s Warning to Israel Typical for Their Diplomatic Relationship?

This is certainly not without precedent. There have been many U.S. presidents and secretaries of state who have been frustrated with Israel over something, going back to at least the 1973 war between Israel and a coalition of Arab countries. The U.S. pressed Israel to adhere to a U.N. Security Council cease-fire resolution then – one sponsored by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union – but Israel, for a time, refused.

Other presidents have been in the position of saying, “Do this,” and the Israeli comeback is always, “Not quite yet.” So this episode, while very blatant, is hardly unique.

Countries are allies because their interests overlap but are not identical. U.S. history is littered with allies that managed to do what they wanted and not what we wanted them to do.

Years ago, when I was at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London and would talk about the difficulties of dealing with allies, let alone enemies, a wonderful researcher focused on Israel would comment: “So who ever said it was easy to be a superpower!” Biden would sympathize with that remark.

As Israeli politics and leadership have drifted so far to the right, a lot of the people in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition don’t really care about the U.S. and what it wants. Netanyahu is now very dependent on the far right for his own political survival, so he is likely to listen to his right-wingers, not to the U.S.

So, How Much Political Leverage Does the U.S. Actually Have Over Israel?

I think at this point, it is really time for the U.S. to say that it is going to call arms deliveries to Israel into question. Israel is going into Rafah after the U.S. specifically said to please not do this without making sure you can keep most Gazans safe. This does not necessarily require a red line to be drawn – which typically is not very effective – but a clear warning that this decision will influence arms transfers in the future.

The other problem is that while you might assume that Israel is considering how to govern Gaza after the war, there is still no clear, public idea of what the endgame is. How is this supposed to end?

Meanwhile, this escalation is bound to continue polarizing American public opinion on the issue, which is probably an additional reason for the U.S. to try to get the war to stop as soon as possible.

The US Is Reported To Have Decided To Place a Hold on Shipping Bombs to Israel. Can This Influence Israel’s Wartime Behavior?

It probably doesn’t matter materially in the short run, but psychologically in the longer run, if arms were stopped that would make a difference. Israel is the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid and has received more U.S. military assistance than any other country since World War II. By early March this year, the U.S. had made more than 100 arms shipments to Israel since Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7. 2023.

Israel is now risking an escalating confrontation with Hezbollah, a militant group in Lebanon, in the north. It seems to be in Israel’s interest to try to not expand conflict but to limit it.

Given This, Why Do You Believe Israel Is So Intent on Going Into Rafah?

Across the political spectrum in Israel, there is a sense that invading Rafah has to be done, it has to be finished, in order to eradicate Hamas. The issue is we never knew exactly what finishing means. And most of us in the national security business think there is no way Israel can totally eradicate Hamas.

Before October 2023, Hamas was never popular in Gaza because it didn’t properly govern, but the Israeli attack has made it more popular, especially on the West Bank, because it stood up to Israel and put the issues of the Palestinians back on the agenda after the world, including the Arab world, had forgotten it.

The idea of eradicating Hamas seems to be still where Israelis across the spectrum are focused. Therefore, if the remaining Hamas leaders were thought to be in Rafah, then so be it, they are thinking, on to the attack.

What Are the National Security Implications of Israel Going Into Rafah?

It does create more instability and increases the risk of a widening war. Even if Iran doesn’t respond, it is likely that some of its proxies, like Hezbollah, will do something that could deepen this conflict. We should use the term proxies carefully, because the U.S. knows from its own experience that you cannot necessarily control proxy governments or militias. But it seems like this is a kind of invitation for at least Iran’s proxies to escalate the conflict.The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


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The post Could Biden Stop Netanyahu’s Plans? A National Security Expert Looks at Israel’s Attack On Rafah appeared first on DCReport.org.

Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Mfg

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for April. The consensus is for 1.410 million SAAR, up from 1.321 million SAAR in March.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 222 thousand initial claims, down from 231 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 8.0, down from 15.5.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 78.4%.

NHC Atlantic Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN


NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become
more diffuse than yesterday, and marginal environmental conditions
due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant development.
This system should remain nearly stationary during the next day or
so, but by the end of the weekend, the low is forecast to interact
or merge with another system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist several hundred miles
to the south of the coast of southern Mexico along a trough of low
pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur as it moves slowly westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin

Webinar Replay – Space Loves AI: How AI promises to transform space operations

For satellite operators, AI’s potential benefits are impossible to ignore. As Earth observation and communications constellations expand, AI tools promise to streamline operations, reduce on-orbit collisions and speed up analysis […]

The post Webinar Replay – Space Loves AI: How AI promises to transform space operations appeared first on SpaceNews.

North Celestial Aurora

North Celestial Aurora North Celestial Aurora